L’École des cotes

Lorenzo Sonego v Andrey Rublev

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-16 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lorenzo Sonego (Local)

Prévision 23.99%4.17cote équitable
EV +7.94%
Avantage +1.76%
Kelly +2.27%
Croissance +0.180%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.33%24.16%24.09%28.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.893.924.5030.30%25.69%25.51%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Andrey Rublev (Visiteur)

Prévision 76.01%1.32cote équitable
EV -1.94%
Avantage -1.51%
Kelly -6.69%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.29

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
71.90%75.84%75.91%78.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.241.241.2983.33%80.60%80.65%77.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Bovada4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +7.94%E +1.76%K +2.27%G +0.180%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-16 11:44
888sport4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +3.86%E +0.891%K +1.16%G +0.045%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.78%E -7.32%K -43.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 11:45
DraftKings4.32I 23.15%NM 22.02%EV +3.62%E +0.837%K +1.09%G +0.039%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.98%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 11:45
William Hill4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.740%E +0.176%K +0.231%G +0.002%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 08:49
Pinnacle4.15I 24.10%NM 23.57%EV -0.460%E -0.111%K -0.146%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 76.43%EV -2.70%E -2.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-16 11:45
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Casumo4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Unibet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 11:45
betPARX4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Svenska Spel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Betway4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 11:44
Winamax (DE)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -8.02%E -6.63%K -38.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
1xBet4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -3.82%E -0.952%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-16 11:05
Hard Rock Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 11:44
NordicBet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Betsson4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
SportsBet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 07:20
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:44
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Bet Right4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 10:25
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
LowVig.ag3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 10:50
BetOnline.ag3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 10:50
Unibet (NL)3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 11:44
Coolbet3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 11:44
Fliff3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -8.78%E -7.32%K -43.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-16 11:45
Marathon Bet3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -5.98%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-16 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.46%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 11:45
Coral3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.46%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 11:44
Bally Bet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 11:40
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-15 15:10
Betr (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 11:36
PointsBet (AU)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-16 11:45
TABtouch3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-16 11:44
Caesars3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-16 11:45
LiveScore Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Virgin Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 11:44
Tipico (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-16 11:45
BetUS3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 11:30
888sport (SE)3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 11:45
Mr Green (SE)3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 11:45
Winamax (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-16 11:44
LeoVegas3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.50%E -5.29%K -28.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 11:44
Unibet (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.70%E -2.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-16 11:45
ATG (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.70%E -2.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-16 11:45
LeoVegas (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 11:44
Betclic (FR)3.68I 27.17%NM 24.90%EV -11.73%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.10%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-16 11:45
BetRivers3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 11:45
Grosvenor3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 11:45
BetMGM3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 11:45
Neds3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 08:40
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.05%E -4.59%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-16 11:45
PMU (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -17.25%E -5.00%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-16 11:45
Fanatics3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -20.85%E -6.32%K -9.06%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -1.94%E -1.51%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 11:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%0.8%2026-04-16 11:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%0.9%2026-04-16 11:45
Smarkets4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60%1.5%2026-04-16 11:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47%1.5%2026-04-16 11:45
Matchbook4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%2.5%2026-04-16 11:45
ProphetX4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%5.2%2026-04-16 11:45
Novig4.12I 24.27%NM 22.70%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.30%6.9%2026-04-16 11:45