The School of Odds

AGF Aarhus v Lech Poznań

2026-07-21 17:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Prediction 43.82%2.28fair odd
EV -5.34%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.90%43.74%43.82%44.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.132.1649%47%47%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lech Poznań (Visit)

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.736%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%26.70%26.66%27.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.453.453.6530%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.51%3.39fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.55%29.56%29.51%30.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.103.2533%32%32%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.33%EV -5.34%E -2.47%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.29%EV -5.09%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.39%EV -9.10%E -2.95%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 04:55
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 44.23%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -2.69%E -0.736%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 06:05
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -4.08%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 04:55
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 04:55
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 04:55
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 04:55
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.56%EV -6.21%E -2.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.18%EV -5.09%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -9.10%E -2.95%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 04:55
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.09%E -3.34%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -4.08%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 04:55
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.03%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 04:55
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -8.84%E -4.25%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 04:55
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -8.84%E -4.25%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.51%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-18 06:55
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 04:53
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.51%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-18 04:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.51%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-18 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 46.79%3.45I 28.99%NM 19.53%2.00I 50.00%NM 33.69%48.4%2026-07-18 06:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 46.79%3.45I 28.99%NM 19.53%2.00I 50.00%NM 33.69%48.4%2026-07-18 06:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 46.79%3.45I 28.99%NM 19.53%2.00I 50.00%NM 33.69%48.4%2026-07-18 06:40