La escuela de los momiosEspañol
AGF Aarhus v Lech Poznań
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
AGF Aarhus (Local)
Predicción 36.31%2.75momio equitativo
EV -4.86%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -3.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.43%36.29%36.35%37.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.452.572.572.6240.82%38.98%38.91%38.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Lech Poznań (Visitante)
Predicción 35.17%2.84momio equitativo
EV -1.88%
Ventaja -0.674%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.79
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.96%35.04%35.12%35.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.662.652.7939.22%37.63%37.74%35.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.52%3.51momio equitativo
EV -3.04%
Ventaja -0.893%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.84%28.67%28.53%30.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.173.103.4033.33%31.51%32.26%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -4.86%E -1.86%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -7.86%E -3.00%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 16:50 |
| NordicBet | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -4.86%E -1.86%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -7.86%E -3.00%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 16:50 |
| 1xBet | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.05%EV -1.88%E -0.674%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.41%EV -7.88%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Bovada | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.51%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-21 16:54 |
| Coolbet | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -3.29%E -1.20%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 16:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Casumo | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Unibet | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| TABtouch | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| betPARX | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Grosvenor | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.52%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -13.02%E -4.27%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.28%EV -6.68%E -2.60%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.46%EV -7.51%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.89%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.52%EV -7.04%E -2.75%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.41%EV -7.16%E -2.71%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.07%EV -5.03%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.52%EV -7.04%E -2.75%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.41%EV -7.16%E -2.71%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.07%EV -5.03%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.04%E -0.893%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-21 16:50 |
| DraftKings | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.05%E -1.87%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
| FanDuel | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -6.80%E -2.57%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
| Bet Right | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.32%E -4.05%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -6.80%E -2.57%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -14.44%E -4.81%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -6.80%E -2.57%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -14.44%E -4.81%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.32%E -4.05%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-21 16:50 |
| SportsBet | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.56%E -3.29%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
| 888sport | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.56%E -3.29%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-21 16:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.56%E -3.29%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-21 16:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.56%E -3.29%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -8.56%E -3.29%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.35%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.92%EV -10.32%E -4.05%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-21 16:45 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-21 16:55 |