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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Kocaelispor v Samsunspor

2026-09-06 17:00 UTC — Turkey Super League

Resultado del partido

26 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kocaelispor (Local)

Predicción 35.63%2.81momio equitativo
EV -3.44%
Ventaja -1.27%
Kelly -2.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.00%35.67%35.65%36.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.562.602.7142.55%39.04%38.46%36.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Samsunspor (Visitante)

Predicción 32.60%3.07momio equitativo
EV -2.52%
Ventaja -0.843%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.99

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.21%33.20%32.53%39.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.762.802.9942.55%36.20%35.71%33.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 31.77%3.15momio equitativo
EV +17.54%
Ventaja +4.74%
Kelly +6.49%
Crecimiento +1.14%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.12%31.13%31.81%32.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.972.933.7037.04%33.67%34.13%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kocaelispor (Local): 35.63%; Samsunspor (Visitante): 32.60%; Empate: 31.77%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.15. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.70, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +17.54%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (26 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Betsson🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.34%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -23.39%E -9.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV +17.54%E +4.74%K +6.49%G +1.14%7.6%2026-08-30 18:50
NordicBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.34%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -23.39%E -9.95%K -17.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV +17.54%E +4.74%K +6.49%G +1.14%7.6%2026-08-30 18:50
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.53%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV +0.064%E +0.020%K +0.030%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 19:05
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -9.14%E -3.58%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.16%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.44%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 19:05
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.74%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.40%EV -2.52%E -0.843%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.86%EV -3.43%E -1.13%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 21:40
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -5.58%E -2.10%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.45%E -1.88%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 20:10
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -9.14%E -3.58%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 19:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -9.14%E -3.58%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 19:15
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -10.92%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 00:39
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -10.92%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 00:39
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.92%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -11.98%E -4.44%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 19:05
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -4.51%E -1.68%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.21%EV -3.50%E -1.18%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.21%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 19:50
GTbets🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.48%EV -5.22%E -1.96%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.32%EV -4.80%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.21%EV -6.92%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 00:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.75%EV -7.00%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.11%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.85%EV -6.92%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.88%E -2.72%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.88%E -2.72%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 18:50
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -10.35%E -3.76%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.88%E -2.72%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 18:50
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.47%E -3.32%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 19:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.04%EV -11.63%E -4.69%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.27%EV -9.69%E -3.50%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.69%EV -10.42%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 18:49
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 20:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 20:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -8.72%E -3.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.72%EV -12.70%E -5.18%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.02%EV -13.61%E -5.13%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.26%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-30 19:50
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.97%EV -14.48%E -6.03%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -15.24%E -5.86%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.83%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-30 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.78%EV -14.48%E -6.03%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.41%EV -13.61%E -5.13%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.81%EV -14.23%E -5.27%K -8.37%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-30 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.82%EV -16.27%E -6.92%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.01%EV -16.87%E -6.61%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.17%EV -14.23%E -5.27%K -8.37%G +0.000%18.8%2026-08-30 19:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.53%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.68%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.79%4.1%2026-08-31 01:55
Arbitraje (186 combinaciones) +2.70%1xBet 2.71 (37.9%) / 1xBet 2.99 (34.3%) / Betsson 3.70 (27.8%)Ver las 186 combinaciones
Kocaelispor (Local)Samsunspor (Visitante)EmpateMargen
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.3%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.8%)+2.70%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.3%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.8%)+2.70%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.8%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.6%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.7%)+2.34%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.8%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.7%)+2.34%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (38.2%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.2%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.6%)+2.26%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (38.2%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.2%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.6%)+2.26%
GTbets🎯 2.66 (38.3%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.1%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.6%)+1.97%
GTbets🎯 2.66 (38.3%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.1%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.6%)+1.97%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (38.0%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.4%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.91%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (38.0%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.4%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.91%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.6%)GTbets🎯 2.92 (34.9%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.86%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.6%)GTbets🎯 2.92 (34.9%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.86%
Fanatics🎯 2.65 (38.4%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.1%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.83%
Fanatics🎯 2.65 (38.4%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.1%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.83%
GTbets🎯 2.66 (38.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.3%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.62%
GTbets🎯 2.66 (38.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.3%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.62%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.5%)Fanatics🎯 2.90 (35.0%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.62%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.5%)Fanatics🎯 2.90 (35.0%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.5%)+1.62%
Betsson🎯 2.63 (38.6%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.0%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.53%
Betsson🎯 2.63 (38.6%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.0%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.53%
NordicBet🎯 2.63 (38.6%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.0%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.53%
NordicBet🎯 2.63 (38.6%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (34.0%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.53%
Fanatics🎯 2.65 (38.3%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.3%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.47%
Fanatics🎯 2.65 (38.3%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.3%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.47%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (37.8%)GTbets🎯 2.92 (34.7%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.43%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (37.8%)GTbets🎯 2.92 (34.7%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.43%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.4%)Marathon Bet🎯 2.88 (35.2%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.37%
1xBet🎯 2.71 (37.4%)Marathon Bet🎯 2.88 (35.2%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.37%
Marathon Bet🎯 2.61 (38.8%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.9%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.23%
Marathon Bet🎯 2.61 (38.8%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.9%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.4%)+1.23%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (37.8%)Fanatics🎯 2.90 (34.9%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.19%
Pinnacle🎯 2.68 (37.8%)Fanatics🎯 2.90 (34.9%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.19%
Betsson🎯 2.63 (38.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.2%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.18%
Betsson🎯 2.63 (38.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.2%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.18%
NordicBet🎯 2.63 (38.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.2%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.18%
NordicBet🎯 2.63 (38.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.96 (34.2%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.18%
GTbets🎯 2.66 (38.0%)GTbets🎯 2.92 (34.6%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.15%
GTbets🎯 2.66 (38.0%)GTbets🎯 2.92 (34.6%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.15%
Coolbet🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Coolbet🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Codere (IT)🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Codere (IT)🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
DraftKings🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
DraftKings🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Betway🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
Betway🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
888sport🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)Betsson🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%
888sport🎯 2.60 (38.9%)1xBet🎯 2.99 (33.8%)NordicBet🎯 3.70 (27.3%)+1.08%

Mostrando 50 de 186 combinaciones