Language:English
FC Lugano v FC Zurich
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Lugano (Local)
Prediction 65.13%1.54fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.20%65.06%65.22%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.431.421.5174.07%70.10%70.18%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Zurich (Visit)
Prediction 14.77%6.77fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +0.486%
Kelly +0.567%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.63%14.87%14.65%16.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.066.007.0018.18%16.51%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.09%4.98fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.654%
Kelly -0.825%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.33%20.07%20.13%21.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.514.504.8223.81%22.19%22.22%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lugano (Local): 65.13%; FC Zurich (Visit): 14.77%; Draw: 20.09%. For FC Zurich (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.40%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.27%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +3.40%E +0.486%K +0.567%G +0.019% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.56%E -0.959%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.96%EV -4.90%E -3.36%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.85I 14.60%NM 14.06%EV +1.19%E +0.173%K +0.203%G +0.002% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.98%EV -3.15%E -0.654%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.31%EV -2.51%E -0.380%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 11:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.31%EV -2.51%E -0.380%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 11:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 11:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.16%E -5.79%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 11:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 11:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 11:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -7.68%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -7.57%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.51%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.68%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.73%EV -10.58%E -2.38%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 11:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -7.68%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.23%EV -8.41%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -3.55%E -0.740%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 11:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.20%EV -1.65%E -1.09%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.77%EV -10.63%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.02%EV -8.78%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 11:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -4.56%E -0.959%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 13:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-09 11:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -8.16%E -5.79%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 11:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-09 11:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-09 11:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 11:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.98%EV -12.07%E -8.94%K -34.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -13.60%E -3.16%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 13:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 13:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.76%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.93%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-04 13:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.41%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-09 11:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 13:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 13:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-04 13:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.00%E -3.00%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-09 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-09 11:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-09 11:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.44%EV -8.16%E -5.79%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -17.28%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-09 11:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -18.75%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -7.57%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-09 11:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -18.75%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 11:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.71% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.71% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.86% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.86% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.47% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.37% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.16% | 2.3% | 2026-08-09 11:55 |
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