Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Lugano v FC Zurich

Início: 2026-08-09 12:00 UTC

Final: FC Lugano 5–0 FC Zurich

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Lugano (Local)

Previsão 65.13%1.54odd justa
EV -1.65%
Vantagem -1.09%
Kelly -3.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.51

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
63.20%65.06%65.22%66.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.351.431.421.5174.07%70.10%70.18%66.23%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Zurich (Visitante)

Previsão 14.77%6.77odd justa
EV +3.40%
Vantagem +0.486%
Kelly +0.567%
Crescimento +0.019%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.63%14.87%14.65%16.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.506.066.007.0018.18%16.51%16.67%14.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 20.09%4.98odd justa
EV -3.15%
Vantagem -0.654%
Kelly -0.825%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.33%20.07%20.13%21.60%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.204.514.504.8223.81%22.19%22.22%20.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: FC Lugano (Local): 65.13%; FC Zurich (Visitante): 14.77%; Empate: 20.09%. Para FC Zurich (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.77. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.40%.

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.27%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +3.40%E +0.486%K +0.567%G +0.019%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.56%E -0.959%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 11:45
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.96%EV -4.90%E -3.36%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 14.06%EV +1.19%E +0.173%K +0.203%G +0.002%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.98%EV -3.15%E -0.654%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.31%EV -2.51%E -0.380%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.31%EV -2.51%E -0.380%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 11:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 11:50
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 11:05
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.16%E -5.79%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 11:45
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:50
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:20
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.98%E -0.613%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:20
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -7.68%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -7.57%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:45
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.51%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.68%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.73%EV -10.58%E -2.38%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 11:39
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -7.68%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.23%EV -8.41%E -1.36%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -3.55%E -0.740%K -0.935%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:30
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.20%EV -1.65%E -1.09%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.77%EV -10.63%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.02%EV -8.78%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -4.56%E -0.959%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 13:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 13:10
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 13:10
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 11:29
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 11:45
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -8.16%E -5.79%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 11:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.98%EV -12.07%E -8.94%K -34.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -11.37%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -13.60%E -3.16%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-09 11:55
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 13:10
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 13:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 13:09
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 13:10
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.60%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 13:14
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.76%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-04 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.93%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-04 13:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.41%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -14.32%E -2.47%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 11:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 13:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 13:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.59%E -2.63%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 13:10
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.00%E -3.00%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 11:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 11:50
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.06%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -15.61%E -3.72%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.44%EV -8.16%E -5.79%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -17.28%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -18.75%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -7.57%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:30
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -8.81%E -6.29%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -18.75%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -9.58%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 11:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.71%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%0.6%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.71%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%0.6%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.86%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%1.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Matchbook◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.86%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.40%1.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.47%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.37%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.16%2.3%2026-08-09 11:55