The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Celta Fortuna v CD Castellón

2026-08-31 19:30 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Fortuna (Local)

Prediction 21.39%4.68fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.353%
Kelly -0.452%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.60%21.44%21.32%23.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.164.204.6027.40%24.02%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CD Castellón (Visit)

Prediction 53.56%1.87fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.54%53.48%53.66%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.721.7860.61%58.34%58.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.06%3.99fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.260%
Kelly -0.348%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.23%25.08%25.02%25.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.633.603.9529.85%27.57%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Celta Fortuna (Local): 21.39%; CD Castellón (Visit): 53.56%; Draw: 25.06%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -1.03%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -1.63%E -0.353%K -0.452%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -11.63%E -7.05%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.30%E -3.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-24 19:34
Pinnacle🎯4.48I 22.32%NM 20.98%EV -4.19%E -0.936%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.02%EV -6.81%E -3.91%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.00%EV -5.79%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-24 19:19
1xBet🎯4.46I 22.42%NM 21.51%EV -4.62%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.20%EV -5.20%E -2.94%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -1.03%E -0.260%K -0.348%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-24 19:24
Marathon Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.90%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -8.42%E -4.92%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -3.53%E -0.918%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 19:49
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -8.04%E -1.87%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -5.20%E -2.94%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -4.79%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-24 19:44
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -8.04%E -1.87%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -4.67%E -2.62%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -6.04%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-24 19:39
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -8.04%E -1.87%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.91%EV -8.95%E -5.27%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-24 19:39
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -8.04%E -1.87%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.06%EV -9.49%E -5.61%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 19:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.20%EV -6.81%E -3.91%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-24 19:39
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -9.11%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.54%EV -11.09%E -6.68%K -16.81%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.54%EV -12.80%E -3.68%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-24 19:48
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.18%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -6.27%E -3.58%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-24 19:39
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.18%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -7.34%E -4.25%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.80%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-24 19:39
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.18%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -7.34%E -4.25%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.80%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-24 19:44
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.18%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -10.56%E -6.32%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -9.80%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-24 19:19
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.18%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -10.56%E -6.32%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -9.80%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-24 19:39
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.46%E -3.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -6.27%E -3.58%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.80%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-24 19:49
Betsson🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -14.46%E -3.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -6.27%E -3.58%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -11.05%E -3.11%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 19:49
NordicBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -14.46%E -3.61%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -6.27%E -3.58%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -11.05%E -3.11%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 19:49
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -18.73%E -4.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.80%EV -10.56%E -6.32%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -14.81%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-24 19:39
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -19.80%E -5.28%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.75%EV -8.95%E -5.27%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -11.05%E -3.11%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-24 19:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.77%EV -19.80%E -5.28%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 51.75%EV -11.63%E -7.05%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.49%EV -16.06%E -4.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%17.1%2026-08-24 19:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.72%EV -21.94%E -6.01%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.54%EV -10.02%E -5.97%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.74%EV -12.30%E -3.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-24 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 21.45%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%7.2%2026-08-24 19:19
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 23.22%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.14%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.64%16.4%2026-08-24 19:49