Language:English
Celta Fortuna v CD Castellón
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Celta Fortuna (Local)
Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.58%23.45%23.30%24.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.923.904.2027.78%25.50%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
CD Castellón (Visit)
Prediction 52.35%1.91fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.01%52.44%52.35%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.751.8659.88%56.75%57.14%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.24%4.13fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.430%
Kelly +0.565%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.95%24.11%24.35%25.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.704.2028.57%26.75%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Fortuna (Local): 23.41%; CD Castellón (Visit): 52.35%; Draw: 24.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.80%EV -5.20%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.25%EV -5.24%E -2.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%EV +1.81%E +0.430%K +0.565%G +0.010% | 3.7% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.11%EV -5.20%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -8.90%E -5.12%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.11%EV -1.83%E -0.451%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.19%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.04%E -0.760%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.04%E -0.760%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.90%E -5.12%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.04%E -0.760%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-31 19:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -11.00%E -6.47%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -3.04%E -0.760%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -9.89%E -2.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -4.25%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.90%E -5.12%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -1.69%E -0.403%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.33%EV -4.19%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -6.68%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-31 19:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.73%EV -6.81%E -3.83%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.68%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.73%EV -6.81%E -3.83%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.68%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.73%EV -6.81%E -3.83%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.68%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -7.55%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.01%EV -2.62%E -1.41%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.72%E -2.59%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-31 19:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -8.90%E -5.12%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-31 19:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -11.00%E -6.47%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -11.00%E -6.47%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -15.74%E -4.37%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -11.00%E -6.47%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -12.23%E -3.26%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.45%EV -11.00%E -6.47%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -4.72%E -2.59%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -4.72%E -2.59%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -4.72%E -2.59%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.03%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -4.72%E -2.59%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.75%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-31 19:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-31 19:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -12.23%E -3.26%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.95%E -5.79%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-31 19:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -7.55%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-31 19:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -7.55%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-31 19:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.86%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.29%EV -9.95%E -5.79%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-31 19:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.74%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.74%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-31 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.74%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-31 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.74%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-31 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.74%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-31 18:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -9.89%E -2.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.70%EV -12.57%E -7.53%K -18.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -12.74%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -8.72%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -6.38%E -1.59%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -8.38%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -15.16%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-31 19:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.42%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.15%EV -8.90%E -5.12%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -15.16%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -9.43%E -5.45%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -15.16%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.06%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -9.43%E -5.45%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -15.16%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.72% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 54.03% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.25% | 0.0% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.72% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 54.03% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.25% | 0.0% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.72% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 54.03% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.25% | 0.0% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67% | 0.6% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.51% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.76% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.01% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53% | 1.2% | 2026-08-31 19:25 |