Language:English
AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Prediction 50.66%1.97fair odd
EV -0.716%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.745%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.54%50.76%50.65%52.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.821.821.9659.88%54.86%54.95%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Sociedad B (Visit)
Prediction 23.77%4.21fair odd
EV +2.20%
Edge +0.513%
Kelly +0.668%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.82%23.72%23.71%25.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.793.754.3029.41%26.38%26.67%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.58%3.91fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.398%
Kelly -0.538%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.61%25.53%25.64%26.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.543.553.8532.26%28.25%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 50.66%; Real Sociedad B (Visit): 23.77%; Draw: 25.58%. For Real Sociedad B (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.20%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV +2.20%E +0.513%K +0.668%G +0.015% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.46%EV -4.77%E -2.54%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 23.09%EV -0.410%E -0.098%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -2.81%E -0.740%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -2.55%E -0.622%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -2.55%E -0.622%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.05%EV -3.74%E -0.923%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.65%EV -6.90%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.93%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -4.93%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -11.35%E -6.49%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.37%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -1.53%E -0.398%K -0.538%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.09%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.37%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.33%EV -11.86%E -6.82%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -11.35%E -6.49%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -11.35%E -6.49%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.54%EV -0.716%E -0.365%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -9.92%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.36%EV -7.67%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -5.37%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.51%EV -12.87%E -7.48%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.33%EV -15.60%E -4.73%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.31%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -13.24%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.70%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -13.24%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -11.76%E -3.41%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -11.76%E -3.41%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.21%EV -10.85%E -6.16%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.25%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.55%EV -9.83%E -5.52%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.24%EV -9.33%E -5.21%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.83%EV -15.62%E -4.40%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.93%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -16.81%E -4.80%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 49.26%EV -15.41%E -9.22%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.20%EV -19.19%E -5.64%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.54%EV -20.71%E -6.68%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 21.6% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.60% | 2.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.47% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21% | 3.0% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |