La escuela de los momiosEspañol
AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Predicción 50.66%1.97momio equitativo
EV -0.716%
Ventaja -0.365%
Kelly -0.745%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.54%50.76%50.65%52.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.821.821.9659.88%54.86%54.95%51.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Real Sociedad B (Visitante)
Predicción 23.77%4.21momio equitativo
EV +2.20%
Ventaja +0.513%
Kelly +0.668%
Crecimiento +0.015%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.82%23.72%23.71%25.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.793.754.3029.41%26.38%26.67%23.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 25.58%3.91momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.398%
Kelly -0.538%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.61%25.53%25.64%26.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.543.553.8532.26%28.25%28.17%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV +2.20%E +0.513%K +0.668%G +0.015% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.46%EV -4.77%E -2.54%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 23.09%EV -0.410%E -0.098%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -2.81%E -0.740%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -2.55%E -0.622%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -2.55%E -0.622%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.05%EV -3.74%E -0.923%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.65%EV -6.90%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Fanatics | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.93%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -4.93%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betsson | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Bet Victor | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -11.35%E -6.49%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -7.30%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.37%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Coolbet | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -1.53%E -0.398%K -0.538%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BetAnything | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -8.49%E -2.21%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.09%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| theScore Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.37%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.33%EV -11.86%E -6.82%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -11.35%E -6.49%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Sky Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -11.35%E -6.49%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.68%E -2.55%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| 1xBet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.54%EV -0.716%E -0.365%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -9.92%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.36%EV -7.67%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Unibet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.65%E -1.82%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -5.37%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Neds | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:29 |
| Coral | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.51%EV -12.87%E -7.48%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -10.87%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.33%EV -15.60%E -4.73%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| TABtouch | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Casumo | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| betPARX | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -7.93%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -12.06%E -3.26%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.31%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -13.24%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.70%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -13.24%E -3.63%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -11.76%E -3.41%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -11.76%E -3.41%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.21%EV -10.85%E -6.16%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.25%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.55%EV -9.83%E -5.52%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.43%E -4.01%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.24%EV -9.33%E -5.21%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.83%EV -15.62%E -4.40%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.93%EV -13.04%E -3.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -16.81%E -4.80%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -10.48%E -3.00%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 49.26%EV -15.41%E -9.22%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.20%EV -19.19%E -5.64%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.54%EV -20.71%E -6.68%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 21.6% | 2026-04-10 18:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Matchbook | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Smarkets | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.60% | 2.8% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |
| Kalshi | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.47% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21% | 3.0% | 2026-04-10 18:31 |