The School of OddsReal Madrid v Real Sociedad
Head to Head
Option 1: Real Madrid (Local)
Odds
1.3076.92%Min
1.3872.23%Mean
1.3872.46%Median
1.4867.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
62.53%1.599Min
69.69%1.435Max
66.36%1.507Mean
65.72%1.522Median
65.87%1.518IQM
66.37%1.507Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.48 under the IQM model: 65.87%
EV -2.51%Edge -1.70%Kelly -5.23%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Real Sociedad (Visit)
Odds
5.0020.00%Min
7.1813.92%Mean
7.5013.33%Median
8.0012.50%Max
Consensus probabilities
11.66%8.575Min
16.88%5.923Max
13.81%7.242Mean
14.27%7.008Median
14.08%7.103IQM
13.71%7.292Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 8.00 under the IQM model: 14.08%
EV +12.63%Edge +1.58%Kelly +1.80%Growth +0.228%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
4.0025.00%Min
4.5921.80%Mean
4.5022.22%Median
5.1019.61%Max
Consensus probabilities
18.04%5.544Min
21.33%4.688Max
19.83%5.043Mean
20.01%4.997Median
20.05%4.988IQM
19.91%5.022Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 5.10 under the IQM model: 20.05%
EV +2.25%Edge +0.442%Kelly +0.550%Growth +0.012%
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Real Madrid (Local) | Real Sociedad (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 22:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Bally Bet | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 22:40 |
| betPARX | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 22:45 |
| Casumo | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 23:09 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| TABtouch | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| BetRivers | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.61%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.66%EV +12.63% E +1.58% K +1.80% G +0.228% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.73%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-03 02:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.37I 72.99% NM 69.18%EV -9.76% E -7.12% K -26.37% G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90% NM 12.23%EV +9.11% E +1.18% K +1.35% G +0.123% | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.58%EV +2.25% E +0.442% K +0.550% G +0.012% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.48I 67.57% NM 66.44%EV -2.51% E -1.70% K -5.23% G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16% NM 12.94%EV +7.00% E +0.921% K +1.06% G +0.074% | 4.77I 20.96% NM 20.62%EV -4.36% E -0.915% K -1.16% G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-04 07:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.46I 68.49% NM 66.43%EV -3.83% E -2.62% K -8.32% G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33% NM 12.93%EV +5.60% E +0.746% K +0.861% G +0.048% | 4.70I 21.28% NM 20.64%EV -5.77% E -1.23% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-04 07:35 |
| betfred_uk | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -7.78% E -5.56% K -19.45% G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33% NM 12.73%EV +5.60% E +0.746% K +0.861% G +0.048% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 19.09%EV +0.249% E +0.050% K +0.062% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.38I 72.46% NM 68.49%EV -9.10% E -6.59% K -23.94% G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33% NM 12.60%EV +5.60% E +0.746% K +0.861% G +0.048% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.90%EV +0.249% E +0.050% K +0.062% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.32I 75.76% NM 69.69%EV -13.05% E -9.89% K -40.78% G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33% NM 12.27%EV +5.60% E +0.746% K +0.861% G +0.048% | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.04%EV +2.25% E +0.442% K +0.550% G +0.012% | 8.7% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 68.20%EV -10.42% E -7.66% K -28.93% G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29% NM 13.25%EV -1.44% E -0.206% K -0.241% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.55%EV +0.249% E +0.050% K +0.062% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 23:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33I 75.19% NM 68.03%EV -12.39% E -9.32% K -37.55% G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29% NM 12.93%EV -1.44% E -0.206% K -0.241% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.05%EV -4.76% E -1.00% K -1.27% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 65.87%EV -10.42% E -7.66% K -28.93% G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29% NM 12.80%EV -1.44% E -0.206% K -0.241% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.33%EV -15.79% E -3.76% K -4.93% G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-02 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 65.87%EV -10.42% E -7.66% K -28.93% G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29% NM 12.80%EV -1.44% E -0.206% K -0.241% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 21.33%EV -15.79% E -3.76% K -4.93% G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.56%EV -6.46% E -4.55% K -15.39% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.54%EV -8.48% E -1.31% K -1.54% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.90%EV +0.249% E +0.050% K +0.062% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 01:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -7.78% E -5.56% K -19.45% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV -8.48% E -1.31% K -1.54% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 21:14 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 65.26%EV -3.83% E -2.62% K -8.32% G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63% NM 14.89%EV -9.89% E -1.55% K -1.83% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.85%EV -3.76% E -0.783% K -0.990% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-04 21:20 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.30I 76.92% NM 65.44%EV -14.37% E -11.05% K -47.89% G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63% NM 13.29%EV -9.89% E -1.55% K -1.83% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 21.27%EV -19.80% E -4.95% K -6.60% G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-07-05 01:04 |
| LeoVegas | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.73%EV -6.46% E -4.55% K -15.39% G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39% NM 15.07%EV -14.12% E -2.31% K -2.77% G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98% NM 20.20%EV -8.77% E -1.93% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-04 21:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.42%EV -6.46% E -4.55% K -15.39% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.25%EV -15.52% E -2.59% K -3.10% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.33%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-04 21:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36I 73.53% NM 65.41%EV -10.42% E -7.66% K -28.93% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 14.83%EV -15.52% E -2.59% K -3.10% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.77%EV -9.78% E -2.17% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-05 11:35 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.43I 69.93% NM 64.48%EV -5.80% E -4.06% K -13.50% G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24% NM 15.90%EV -18.34% E -3.16% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28% NM 19.62%EV -5.77% E -1.23% K -1.56% G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 21:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 64.48%EV -10.42% E -7.66% K -28.93% G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24% NM 15.12%EV -18.34% E -3.16% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 20.40%EV -13.79% E -3.21% K -4.18% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-04 21:20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.37I 72.99% NM 64.12%EV -9.76% E -7.12% K -26.37% G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86% NM 15.69%EV -21.16% E -3.78% K -4.60% G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99% NM 20.19%EV -12.78% E -2.94% K -3.82% G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-04 02:45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.35I 74.07% NM 62.53%EV -11.07% E -8.20% K -31.64% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 16.88%EV -29.60% E -5.92% K -7.40% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 20.59%EV -17.80% E -4.34% K -5.74% G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-07-04 21:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Real Madrid (Local) | Real Sociedad (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.40I 71.43% | 7.00I 14.29% | 4.90I 20.41% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.46I 68.49% | 4.50I 22.22% | 3.70I 27.03% | 17.7% | 2026-07-05 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.46I 68.49% | 4.50I 22.22% | 3.70I 27.03% | 17.7% | 2026-07-05 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.46I 68.49% | 1.19I 84.03% | 3.70I 27.03% | 79.6% | 2026-07-05 10:10 |
Arbitrage (24 combinations)+0.33%1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) / LeoVegas (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) / SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%)Show all 24 combinations
| Real Madrid (Local) | Real Sociedad (Visit) | Draw | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | LeoVegas (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | LeoVegas (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | ATG (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | ATG (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Svenska Spel 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Svenska Spel 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Bally Bet 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Bally Bet 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | betPARX 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | betPARX 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Casumo 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Casumo 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Unibet (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Unibet (SE) 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Grosvenor 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Grosvenor 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Unibet (NL) 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Unibet (NL) 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Unibet 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | Unibet 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | TABtouch 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | TABtouch 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | BetRivers 8.00 (12.5%) | SportsBet 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |
| 1xBet 1.48 (67.8%) | BetRivers 8.00 (12.5%) | FanDuel 5.10 (19.7%) | +0.326% |