The School of Odds

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad

2026-08-16 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

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Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 67.11%1.49fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -5.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.05%67.11%67.11%67.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.361.391.381.4574%72%72%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 12.31%8.12fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.187%
Kelly -0.213%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.66%12.31%12.31%14.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.507.708.008.0015%13%13%13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.57%4.86fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.704%
Kelly -0.895%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.41%20.57%20.57%21.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.484.504.7024%22%22%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
TAB1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -2.68%E -1.85%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -13.81%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-14 09:19
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -3.36%E -2.33%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV -8.88%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -3.31%E -0.704%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-14 09:18
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -3.36%E -2.33%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV -8.88%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -3.31%E -0.704%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-14 09:19
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -6.04%E -4.31%K -15.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -19.96%E -3.07%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.51%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-03 02:20
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 17:30
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.81%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -13.60%E -3.24%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.81%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -13.60%E -3.24%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-02 22:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.