语言:简体中文
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Real Madrid (主队)
预测 66.10%1.51公平赔率
EV -3.50%
优势 -2.39%
Kelly -7.60%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.46
博彩公司预测分布
63.97%66.20%66.07%68.29%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.301.391.391.4676.92%71.91%71.94%68.49%最小值均值中位数最大值
Real Sociedad (客队)
预测 14.25%7.02公平赔率
EV +14.00%
优势 +1.75%
Kelly +2.00%
增长率 +0.280%
假设最高赔率为 8.00
博彩公司预测分布
12.26%14.17%14.25%15.66%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.606.877.008.0017.86%14.56%14.29%12.50%最小值均值中位数最大值
平局
预测 19.65%5.09公平赔率
EV +0.223%
优势 +0.044%
Kelly +0.054%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 5.10
博彩公司预测分布
18.34%19.63%19.68%21.07%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.204.734.705.1023.81%21.15%21.28%19.61%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Real Madrid (主队)：66.10%；Real Sociedad (客队)：14.25%；平局：19.65%。 对于“Real Sociedad (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为7.02。 当时有18家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为8.00，对应+14.00%的正期望值。
博彩公司赔率 (49 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 平局 | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.29%EV +14.00%E +1.75%K +2.00%G +0.280% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.94%EV -3.12%E -0.632%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-15 10:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.76%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.26%EV +12.57%E +1.59%K +1.82%G +0.229% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.98%EV -4.69%E -0.967%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-15 10:38 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +5.45%E +0.736%K +0.851%G +0.046% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +5.45%E +0.736%K +0.851%G +0.046% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.29%EV -8.12%E -5.84%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.09%EV +3.31%E +0.456%K +0.529%G +0.018% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%EV +0.223%E +0.044%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 11:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV +0.223%E +0.044%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 11:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-09 08:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -3.10%E -0.456%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.07%EV -6.80%E -4.82%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-14 05:16 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.88%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.97%EV -4.53%E -0.676%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.15%EV -3.90%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-09 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.46%EV -6.80%E -4.82%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-15 12:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-15 12:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -14.52%E -3.34%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-22 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-13 11:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.53%EV -3.50%E -2.39%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.95%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.52%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -8.12%E -5.84%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -6.14%E -4.32%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.60%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.31%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.91%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 65.52%EV -14.07%E -10.82%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.20%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.28%EV -17.46%E -4.16%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-07-16 08:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.81%EV -8.78%E -6.36%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -17.35%E -2.99%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.78%EV -10.77%E -7.98%K -30.76%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.34%EV -18.78%E -3.29%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.88%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 63.97%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -20.20%E -3.61%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -15.50%E -3.60%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (4)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 平局 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.64% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 05:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44% | 2.9% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44% | 2.9% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.94% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12% | 4.6% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |