La scuola delle quote

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad

2026-08-16 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

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19 bookmaker (2 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Real Madrid (Casa)

Previsione 67.11%1.49quota equa
EV -2.68%
Vantaggio -1.85%
Kelly -5.96%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.45

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
65.05%67.11%67.11%67.61%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.361.391.381.4573.53%72.00%72.46%68.97%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Real Sociedad (Trasferta)

Previsione 12.31%8.12quota equa
EV -1.49%
Vantaggio -0.187%
Kelly -0.213%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 8.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
11.66%12.31%12.31%14.01%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
6.507.708.008.0015.38%12.99%12.50%12.50%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 20.57%4.86quota equa
EV -3.31%
Vantaggio -0.704%
Kelly -0.895%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.70

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
20.41%20.57%20.57%21.33%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.204.484.504.7023.81%22.31%22.22%21.28%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (19 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaPareggioMargineAggiornamento
TAB1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -2.68%E -1.85%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -13.81%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-14 09:19
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -3.36%E -2.33%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV -8.88%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -3.31%E -0.704%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-14 09:18
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -3.36%E -2.33%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV -8.88%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -3.31%E -0.704%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-14 09:19
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -6.04%E -4.31%K -15.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -19.96%E -3.07%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.51%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-03 02:20
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -1.49%E -0.187%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.42%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 17:30
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.81%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -13.60%E -3.24%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.81%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -13.60%E -3.24%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-02 22:19
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.