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Real Madrid v Real Sociedad
Коэффициенты закрытия — вероятности и ожидаемая ценность, рассчитанные выбранной моделью по последним коэффициентам, зарегистрированным до начала матча. Матч уже начался, поэтому это не текущие показатели. Оценить надёжность вероятностных прогнозов каждой модели по результатам всех завершённых матчей →
Победитель встречи
Real Madrid (Хозяева)
Прогноз 66.10%1.51справедливый коэффициент
EV -3.50%
Преимущество -2.39%
Kelly -7.60%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 1.46
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
63.97%66.20%66.07%68.29%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
1.301.391.391.4676.92%71.91%71.94%68.49%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Real Sociedad (Гости)
Прогноз 14.25%7.02справедливый коэффициент
EV +14.00%
Преимущество +1.75%
Kelly +2.00%
Рост +0.280%
при максимальном коэффициенте 8.00
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
12.26%14.17%14.25%15.66%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
5.606.877.008.0017.86%14.56%14.29%12.50%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Ничья
Прогноз 19.65%5.09справедливый коэффициент
EV +0.223%
Преимущество +0.044%
Kelly +0.054%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 5.10
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
18.34%19.63%19.68%21.07%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
4.204.734.705.1023.81%21.15%21.28%19.61%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
По последним коэффициентам перед началом модель Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список) оценивала рынок «Победитель встречи» так: Real Madrid (Хозяева): 66.10%; Real Sociedad (Гости): 14.25%; Ничья: 19.65%. Для исхода «Real Sociedad (Гости)» эта оценка соответствовала справедливому десятичному коэффициенту 7.02. 18 букмекеров предлагали итоговые коэффициенты выше этого уровня; лучший составлял 8.00, что соответствовало положительному математическому ожиданию +14.00%.
Коэффициенты букмекерских контор (49 букмекерских контор)
Мы не связаны ни с одной букмекерской конторой и ничего не зарабатываем на действиях, совершаемых у них.
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости ▼ | Ничья | Маржа | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.29%EV +14.00%E +1.75%K +2.00%G +0.280% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.94%EV -3.12%E -0.632%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-15 10:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.76%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.26%EV +12.57%E +1.59%K +1.82%G +0.229% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.98%EV -4.69%E -0.967%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-15 10:38 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +5.45%E +0.736%K +0.851%G +0.046% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +5.45%E +0.736%K +0.851%G +0.046% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.29%EV -8.12%E -5.84%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.09%EV +3.31%E +0.456%K +0.529%G +0.018% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%EV +0.223%E +0.044%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 11:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV +0.223%E +0.044%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 11:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-09 08:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -3.10%E -0.456%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.07%EV -6.80%E -4.82%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-14 05:16 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.88%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.97%EV -4.53%E -0.676%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.15%EV -3.90%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-09 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.46%EV -6.80%E -4.82%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-15 12:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-15 12:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -14.52%E -3.34%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-22 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-13 11:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.53%EV -3.50%E -2.39%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.95%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.52%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -8.12%E -5.84%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -6.14%E -4.32%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.60%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.31%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.91%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 65.52%EV -14.07%E -10.82%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.20%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.28%EV -17.46%E -4.16%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-07-16 08:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.81%EV -8.78%E -6.36%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -17.35%E -2.99%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.78%EV -10.77%E -7.98%K -30.76%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.34%EV -18.78%E -3.29%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.88%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 63.97%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -20.20%E -3.61%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -15.50%E -3.60%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
Маржа = Маржа · I = Подразумеваемая вероятность · NM = Вероятность без маржи · EV = Ожидаемая ценность · E = Преимущество · K = Критерий Келли · G = Рост капитала
Обновлено — время последнего изменения коэффициента каждой букмекерской конторой. Более раннее время означает лишь, что коэффициент не менялся, а не что он устарел. Конторы, от которых около 15 минут не поступали данные, обычно исключаются; последние зарегистрированные коэффициенты показываются только тогда, когда перестаёт обновляться весь поток данных по рынку.
Биржи ставок (4)
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости | Ничья | Маржа ▲ | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.64% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 05:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44% | 2.9% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44% | 2.9% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.94% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12% | 4.6% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |