Idioma:Español
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Real Madrid (Local)
Predicción 66.10%1.51momio equitativo
EV -3.50%
Ventaja -2.39%
Kelly -7.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.46
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.97%66.20%66.07%68.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.391.391.4676.92%71.91%71.94%68.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Real Sociedad (Visitante)
Predicción 14.25%7.02momio equitativo
EV +14.00%
Ventaja +1.75%
Kelly +2.00%
Crecimiento +0.280%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.26%14.17%14.25%15.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.606.877.008.0017.86%14.56%14.29%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 19.65%5.09momio equitativo
EV +0.223%
Ventaja +0.044%
Kelly +0.054%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.34%19.63%19.68%21.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.734.705.1023.81%21.15%21.28%19.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Real Madrid (Local): 66.10%; Real Sociedad (Visitante): 14.25%; Empate: 19.65%. Para Real Sociedad (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.02. 18 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +14.00%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.29%EV +14.00%E +1.75%K +2.00%G +0.280% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.94%EV -3.12%E -0.632%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-15 10:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.76%EV -5.48%E -3.83%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.26%EV +12.57%E +1.59%K +1.82%G +0.229% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.98%EV -4.69%E -0.967%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-15 10:38 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +6.87%E +0.916%K +1.06%G +0.073% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +5.45%E +0.736%K +0.851%G +0.046% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 09:18 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +5.45%E +0.736%K +0.851%G +0.046% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.29%EV -8.12%E -5.84%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.09%EV +3.31%E +0.456%K +0.529%G +0.018% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%EV +0.223%E +0.044%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 11:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV +0.223%E +0.044%K +0.054%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 11:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-09 08:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -0.253%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-06 11:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.30%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.86%EV -3.10%E -0.456%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.07%EV -6.80%E -4.82%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-14 05:16 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.82%E -0.565%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 04:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.88%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.97%EV -4.53%E -0.676%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.15%EV -3.90%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-09 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-06 17:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.46%EV -6.80%E -4.82%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-15 12:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-15 12:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -14.52%E -3.34%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-22 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.38%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-13 11:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.53%EV -3.50%E -2.39%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.95%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.52%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.82%E -3.35%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -8.80%E -1.38%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.65%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -8.12%E -5.84%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -1.74%E -0.348%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -6.14%E -4.32%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.60%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.31%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -7.64%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.46%E -5.33%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -14.91%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-14 09:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 65.52%EV -14.07%E -10.82%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.20%EV -14.50%E -2.42%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.28%EV -17.46%E -4.16%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-07-16 08:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.81%EV -8.78%E -6.36%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -17.35%E -2.99%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -3.71%E -0.757%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.78%EV -10.77%E -7.98%K -30.76%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.34%EV -18.78%E -3.29%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.88%EV -13.53%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 63.97%EV -9.44%E -6.89%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -20.20%E -3.61%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.38%EV -15.50%E -3.60%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.64% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46% | 2.8% | 2026-07-14 05:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44% | 2.9% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.50% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44% | 2.9% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.94% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12% | 4.6% | 2026-07-13 20:20 |