The School of Odds
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Nacional v Vitória SC

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 50.14%1.99fair odd
EV +32.86%
Edge +12.40%
Kelly +19.92%
Growth +6.54%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.21%49.08%50.17%51.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.941.852.6558.82%51.46%54.05%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitória SC (Visit)

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV -0.725%
Edge -0.190%
Kelly -0.257%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%26.89%26.05%38.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.303.383.503.8243.48%29.62%28.57%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.88%4.19fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.01%24.02%23.78%26.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.823.804.0929.41%26.19%26.32%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 50.14%; Vitória SC (Visit): 25.99%; Draw: 23.88%. For Nacional (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +32.86%E +12.40%K +19.92%G +6.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -37.63%E -15.68%K -26.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 20:55
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +31.36%E +11.97%K +19.36%G +6.07%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -37.63%E -15.68%K -26.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 20:54
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +31.36%E +11.97%K +19.36%G +6.07%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -37.63%E -15.68%K -26.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 20:54
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV +25.34%E +10.14%K +16.89%G +4.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -40.23%E -17.49%K -30.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -18.82%E -5.54%K -7.84%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-11 20:54
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -0.730%E -0.368%K -0.744%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -2.23%E -1.15%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 07:59
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -2.74%E -1.41%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 07:59
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.43%EV -3.74%E -1.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -2.80%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.68%EV -2.35%E -0.575%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-11 22:19
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.24%E -2.22%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 22:44
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -4.24%E -2.22%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -14.24%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-12 07:59
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.74%E -3.05%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.66%EV -8.00%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.13%EV -2.59%E -0.635%K -0.841%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-12 07:52
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -5.74%E -3.05%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 07:44
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 07:44
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 07:43
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 22:45
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 22:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 22:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 22:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -5.14%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -5.45%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-12 05:33
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 23:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 23:49
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -6.89%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-12 07:43
GTbets🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.87%EV -8.75%E -4.81%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.71%EV -0.725%E -0.190%K -0.257%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.42%EV -3.78%E -0.939%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-12 05:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -9.75%E -5.42%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -1.24%E -0.328%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 23:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.75%E -5.42%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-12 08:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.82%EV -10.26%E -5.73%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.87%EV -3.06%E -0.821%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.31%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 22:44
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -12.26%E -7.01%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-11 22:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.92%EV -12.76%E -7.33%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-11 22:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.28%EV -13.77%E -8.00%K -19.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-11 22:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.91%EV -14.77%E -8.69%K -21.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.52%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-11 22:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 51.83%3.00I 33.33%NM 18.31%1.84I 54.35%NM 29.86%82.0%2026-05-12 07:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 51.83%3.00I 33.33%NM 18.31%1.84I 54.35%NM 29.86%82.0%2026-05-12 07:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 51.83%3.00I 33.33%NM 18.31%1.84I 54.35%NM 29.86%82.0%2026-05-12 07:54
Smarkets◎1.05I 95.24%NM 51.92%2.98I 33.56%NM 18.29%1.83I 54.64%NM 29.79%83.4%2026-05-12 07:55