La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Nacional v Vitória SC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Nacional (Local)
Predicción 50.14%1.99momio equitativo
EV +32.86%
Ventaja +12.40%
Kelly +19.92%
Crecimiento +6.54%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.21%49.08%50.17%51.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.941.852.6558.82%51.46%54.05%37.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Vitória SC (Visitante)
Predicción 25.99%3.85momio equitativo
EV -0.725%
Ventaja -0.190%
Kelly -0.257%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.62%26.89%26.05%38.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.303.383.503.8243.48%29.62%28.57%26.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 23.88%4.19momio equitativo
EV -2.35%
Ventaja -0.575%
Kelly -0.761%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.09
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.01%24.02%23.78%26.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.823.804.0929.41%26.19%26.32%24.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +32.86%E +12.40%K +19.92%G +6.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -37.63%E -15.68%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-11 20:55 |
| SportsBet | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +31.36%E +11.97%K +19.36%G +6.07% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -37.63%E -15.68%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Paddy Power | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +31.36%E +11.97%K +19.36%G +6.07% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -37.63%E -15.68%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Sky Bet | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV +25.34%E +10.14%K +16.89%G +4.28% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -40.23%E -17.49%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -18.82%E -5.54%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Coolbet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -0.730%E -0.368%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -2.23%E -1.15%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 07:59 |
| Bet Right | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -2.74%E -1.41%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 07:59 |
| 1xBet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.43%EV -3.74%E -1.95%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -2.80%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.68%EV -2.35%E -0.575%K -0.761%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-11 22:19 |
| Fanatics | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.24%E -2.22%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| betfred_uk | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -4.24%E -2.22%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -14.24%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-12 07:59 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.74%E -3.05%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.66%EV -8.00%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.13%EV -2.59%E -0.635%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Betway | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -5.74%E -3.05%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| Betsson | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| NordicBet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.74%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 07:43 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-11 22:45 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.25%E -3.92%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -5.14%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -5.45%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-12 05:33 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| Everygame | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.25%E -4.51%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -6.89%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-12 07:43 |
| GTbets | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.87%EV -8.75%E -4.81%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.71%EV -0.725%E -0.190%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.42%EV -3.78%E -0.939%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-12 05:39 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -9.75%E -5.42%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -1.24%E -0.328%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-11 23:39 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.75%E -5.42%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.82%EV -10.26%E -5.73%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 24.87%EV -3.06%E -0.821%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.31%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -12.26%E -7.01%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-11 22:09 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.92%EV -12.76%E -7.33%K -17.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.28%EV -13.77%E -8.00%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -9.04%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-11 22:44 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 49.91%EV -14.77%E -8.69%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.52%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-11 22:43 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 51.83% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 18.31% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 29.86% | 82.0% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 51.83% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 18.31% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 29.86% | 82.0% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 51.83% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 18.31% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 29.86% | 82.0% | 2026-05-12 07:54 |
| Smarkets | 1.05I 95.24%NM 51.92% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 18.29% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 29.79% | 83.4% | 2026-05-12 07:55 |