The School of Odds

FC Porto v Alverca

2026-08-09 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 79.24%1.26fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -4.09%
Kelly -24.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.86%79.21%79.32%80.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2089.29%85.73%85.47%83.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Alverca (Visit)

Prediction 6.40%15.62fair odd
EV +8.80%
Edge +0.518%
Kelly +0.550%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.44%6.38%6.29%9.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
9.0014.2215.0017.0011.11%7.03%6.67%5.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 14.36%6.96fair odd
EV +0.515%
Edge +0.074%
Kelly +0.086%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.48%14.41%14.39%15.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.306.336.507.0018.87%15.81%15.38%14.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -7.29%E -6.23%K -42.87%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV +8.80%E +0.518%K +0.550%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-27 10:49
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -7.29%E -6.23%K -42.87%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV +8.80%E +0.518%K +0.550%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-27 10:50
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.64%EV -8.08%E -6.97%K -50.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +8.80%E +0.518%K +0.550%G +0.048%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -3.08%E -0.456%K -0.535%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 10:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.35%EV -8.87%E -7.72%K -59.16%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV +8.80%E +0.518%K +0.550%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 11:15
Fanatics1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -7.29%E -6.23%K -42.87%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +2.40%E +0.150%K +0.160%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.515%E +0.074%K +0.086%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 11:35
Coolbet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.51%EV -4.91%E -4.09%K -24.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.36%EV -4.00%E -0.266%K -0.285%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV -3.08%E -0.456%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 11:25
Betr (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.70%E -4.79%K -30.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -4.00%E -0.266%K -0.285%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 11:25
888sport1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.50%E -5.51%K -36.09%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -4.00%E -0.266%K -0.285%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 11:45
888sport (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.50%E -5.51%K -36.09%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -4.00%E -0.266%K -0.285%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 11:45
Mr Green (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.50%E -5.51%K -36.09%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -4.00%E -0.266%K -0.285%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 11:45
Bet Right1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -6.50%E -5.51%K -36.09%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -10.40%E -0.743%K -0.800%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.67%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 11:25
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -4.91%E -4.09%K -24.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -16.80%E -1.29%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.84%E -2.31%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-27 10:45
Sky Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 78.27%EV -9.67%E -8.48%K -69.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -16.80%E -1.29%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -13.84%E -2.31%K -2.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-27 10:50
Betclic (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 78.33%EV -8.08%E -6.97%K -50.51%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.13%EV -18.40%E -1.44%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.54%EV -10.25%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-27 10:44
Unibet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 76.50%EV -9.67%E -8.48%K -69.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.93%EV -29.60%E -2.69%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.57%EV -19.59%E -3.50%K -4.26%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-27 10:45
Winamax (DE)1.14I 87.72%NM 76.50%EV -9.67%E -8.48%K -69.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.72%EV -36.00%E -3.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.78%EV -15.28%E -2.59%K -3.12%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-27 10:45
Winamax (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 74.86%EV -11.25%E -10.05%K -93.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.32%EV -42.40%E -4.71%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.82%EV -23.90%E -4.51%K -5.56%G +0.000%19.3%2026-07-27 10:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.