Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.22
assuming max odds 17.00
assuming max odds 6.90
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Porto (Local): 78.26%; Alverca (Visit): 6.86%; Draw: 14.88%. For Alverca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.58. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.58%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.31%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +16.58%E +0.975%K +1.04%G +0.172% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.50%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +13.15%E +0.797%K +0.848%G +0.112% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -12.19%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.50%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +13.15%E +0.797%K +0.848%G +0.112% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -12.19%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.43%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.80%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.94%EV -5.31%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 16:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.62%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 16:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -10.00%E -8.70%K -66.67%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 14.83I 6.74%NM 6.43%EV +1.70%E +0.114%K +0.123%G +0.002% | 6.78I 14.75%NM 14.07%EV +0.903%E +0.133%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.56%EV -2.28%E -0.160%K -0.172%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.26%EV -2.52%E -0.385%K -0.454%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.72%EV -5.31%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 16:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -4.75%E -0.743%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -4.75%E -0.743%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-09 15:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.31%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -18.15%E -3.30%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 16:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 16:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.79%EV -11.57%E -10.24%K -88.97%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.36%EV -7.73%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-09 16:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.46%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -14.28%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.46%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -14.28%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.21%EV -10.00%E -8.70%K -66.67%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.20%EV +2.69%E +0.390%K +0.456%G +0.012% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 16:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 16:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 16:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 16:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.27%EV -10.00%E -8.70%K -66.67%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.46%EV -9.22%E -7.95%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.75%EV -19.42%E -1.65%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -1.78%E -0.269%K -0.317%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 16:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.58%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.89%EV -21.14%E -1.84%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 16:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.12%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.85%EV -21.14%E -1.84%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 16:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-09 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.02% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.02% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.02% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.32% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.51% | 19.49I 5.13%NM 5.04% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45% | 1.8% | 2026-08-09 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.38% | 16.67I 6.00%NM 5.88% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.73% | 2.0% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
No published comments yet.