Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

FC Porto v Alverca

Inizio: 2026-08-09 17:00 UTC

Finale: FC Porto 2–0 Alverca

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

56 bookmaker (20 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

FC Porto (Casa)

Previsione 78.26%1.28quota equa
EV -4.52%
Vantaggio -3.71%
Kelly -20.56%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.22

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
76.19%78.19%78.25%79.80%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.131.181.181.2288.50%84.52%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alverca (Trasferta)

Previsione 6.86%14.58quota equa
EV +16.58%
Vantaggio +0.975%
Kelly +1.04%
Crescita +0.172%

ipotizzando la quota massima 17.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
5.48%6.85%6.91%8.54%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
11.0013.4113.0017.009.09%7.46%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 14.88%6.72quota equa
EV +2.69%
Vantaggio +0.390%
Kelly +0.456%
Crescita +0.012%

ipotizzando la quota massima 6.90

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
13.20%14.96%14.83%16.65%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
5.506.116.006.9018.18%16.38%16.67%14.49%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: FC Porto (Casa): 78.26%; Alverca (Trasferta): 6.86%; Pareggio: 14.88%. Per Alverca (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 14.58. 17 bookmaker offrivano quote di chiusura superiori a tale livello; la migliore era 17.00, corrispondente a un valore atteso positivo del +16.58%.

Quote dei bookmaker (56 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.31%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +16.58%E +0.975%K +1.04%G +0.172%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:30
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.50%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +13.15%E +0.797%K +0.848%G +0.112%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -12.19%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.50%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +13.15%E +0.797%K +0.848%G +0.112%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -12.19%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.43%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.80%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 16:45
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +9.72%E +0.608%K +0.648%G +0.063%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.94%EV -5.31%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-09 16:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.62%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 16:50
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 16:55
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 16:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 16:20
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 16:19
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -10.00%E -8.70%K -66.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV +2.86%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%14.83I 6.74%NM 6.43%EV +1.70%E +0.114%K +0.123%G +0.002%6.78I 14.75%NM 14.07%EV +0.903%E +0.133%K +0.156%G +0.001%4.8%2026-08-09 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.56%EV -2.28%E -0.160%K -0.172%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.26%EV -2.52%E -0.385%K -0.454%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 16:10
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.72%EV -5.31%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 16:50
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -4.75%E -0.743%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -4.75%E -0.743%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 16:50
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:54
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:44
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:45
betPARX🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:44
Bally Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:45
BetUS🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 15:50
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.31%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -18.15%E -3.30%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 16:25
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 16:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.79%EV -11.57%E -10.24%K -88.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -10.85%E -0.835%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.36%EV -7.73%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 16:49
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.46%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -14.28%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 16:45
BetRivers🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.46%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -14.28%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.21%EV -10.00%E -8.70%K -66.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.20%EV +2.69%E +0.390%K +0.456%G +0.012%9.8%2026-08-09 16:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 16:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 16:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 16:45
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.97%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 16:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.27%EV -10.00%E -8.70%K -66.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -17.71%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.32%EV -13.68%E -2.36%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-09 16:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.46%EV -9.22%E -7.95%K -57.62%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.75%EV -19.42%E -1.65%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -1.78%E -0.269%K -0.317%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.58%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.89%EV -21.14%E -1.84%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.12%EV -8.44%E -7.21%K -49.62%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.85%EV -21.14%E -1.84%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -10.71%E -1.78%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 16:40
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -3.26%E -0.502%K -0.593%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 16:34
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 16:50
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -7.65%E -6.49%K -42.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -24.57%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -14.43%E -2.51%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 16:50
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 81.02%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24%0.3%2026-08-09 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 81.02%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24%0.3%2026-08-09 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 81.02%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24%0.3%2026-08-09 16:55
Matchbook◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.32%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-08-09 16:55
Smarkets◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.51%19.49I 5.13%NM 5.04%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%1.8%2026-08-09 16:55
Kalshi◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.38%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.88%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.73%2.0%2026-08-09 16:30