Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.62
assuming max odds 5.40
assuming max odds 4.70
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 59.65%; Excelsior (Visit): 19.00%; Draw: 21.34%. For Excelsior (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.62%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.10%EV -4.55%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.10%EV +2.62%E +0.485%K +0.596%G +0.016% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.80%EV +0.310%E +0.066%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-16 17:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.10%EV -4.55%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.10%EV +2.62%E +0.485%K +0.596%G +0.016% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.80%EV +0.310%E +0.066%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.55%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.89%EV +2.62%E +0.485%K +0.596%G +0.016% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV +0.310%E +0.066%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.77%EV -3.96%E -2.46%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 5.27I 18.98%NM 18.26%EV +0.150%E +0.029%K +0.035%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.97%EV -6.52%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-16 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.73%EV -3.96%E -2.46%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 5.22I 19.16%NM 18.42%EV -0.800%E -0.153%K -0.190%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.73%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.22%EV -1.18%E -0.227%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.62%EV -9.33%E -6.14%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -1.18%E -0.227%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.36%EV -1.82%E -0.397%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-16 17:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.75%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -1.18%E -0.227%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-16 16:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.61%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.48%EV -2.13%E -0.414%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -2.89%E -0.635%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 08:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.61%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.48%EV -2.13%E -0.414%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -2.89%E -0.635%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 08:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.61%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.48%EV -2.13%E -0.414%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -2.89%E -0.635%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 08:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.61%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.48%EV -2.13%E -0.414%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -2.89%E -0.635%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 08:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.43%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.07%EV -2.13%E -0.414%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-16 08:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.07%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.49%EV -3.08%E -0.604%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-16 17:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.16%EV -5.15%E -3.24%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -3.08%E -0.604%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.23%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -3.08%E -0.604%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-16 17:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -3.08%E -0.604%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-16 17:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -3.08%E -0.604%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-16 17:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -3.08%E -0.604%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.83%EV -5.15%E -3.24%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 17:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.41%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -1.82%E -0.397%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-16 17:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.41%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -1.82%E -0.397%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-16 17:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -5.75%E -3.64%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-16 17:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.55%EV -5.15%E -3.24%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-16 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-16 17:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.71%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -9.29%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-16 17:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -4.98%E -0.996%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.02%EV -4.55%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -6.88%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-16 17:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.64%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -6.88%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -9.29%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.85%EV -5.15%E -3.24%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.29%EV -7.83%E -1.61%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 21.86%EV -8.65%E -2.02%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-16 17:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.21%EV -4.55%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.21%EV -4.55%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-16 17:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -3.96%E -2.46%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-16 17:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-16 17:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-16 17:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-16 17:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-16 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-16 17:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.57%EV -9.33%E -6.14%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.87%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.57%EV -9.33%E -6.14%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.87%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-16 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.73%EV -9.92%E -6.57%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -8.78%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-16 17:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.51%EV -3.36%E -2.07%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-16 17:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -4.55%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-16 17:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.82%EV -5.75%E -3.64%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-16 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -9.73%E -2.05%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-16 17:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.87%EV -9.92%E -6.57%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.91%EV -10.68%E -2.27%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-16 17:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%EV -3.96%E -2.46%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -12.58%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-16 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -12.58%E -2.74%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-16 16:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.14%EV -9.92%E -6.57%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -14.48%E -3.22%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -9.29%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-16 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -16.38%E -3.72%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-16 17:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.08%EV -12.31%E -8.37%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.74%EV -16.38%E -3.72%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.18%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-16 17:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.59%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.71%E -4.09%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-16 17:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -18.28%E -4.25%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-16 17:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.63% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.76% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62% | 0.6% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.0% | 2026-10-16 17:55 |