Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Heerenveen v Excelsior

2026-10-16 18:00 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Frente a frente

41 casas de apostas (11 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Heerenveen (Local)

Previsão 53.85%1.86odd justa
EV -2.52%
Vantagem -1.39%
Kelly -3.12%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.81

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.02%53.75%53.79%55.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.611.731.741.8162.11%57.82%57.47%55.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Excelsior (Visitante)

Previsão 23.46%4.26odd justa
EV -0.751%
Vantagem -0.177%
Kelly -0.232%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.23

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.64%23.55%23.39%24.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.553.883.904.2328.17%25.75%25.64%23.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 22.68%4.41odd justa
EV -1.78%
Vantagem -0.412%
Kelly -0.536%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.51%22.70%22.81%24.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.754.064.104.3326.67%24.63%24.39%23.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Frente a frente, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Heerenveen (Local): 53.85%; Excelsior (Visitante): 23.46%; Empate: 22.68%. Para Excelsior (Visitante), essa estimativa equivale a odds decimais justas de 4.26. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferece odds acima desse nível: as melhores odds disponíveis são 4.23, com valor esperado de -0.751%; não produzem valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (41 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.08%EV -2.52%E -1.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.32%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV -3.60%E -0.847%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.08%EV -2.52%E -1.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.32%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV -3.60%E -0.847%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.08%EV -2.52%E -1.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.32%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV -3.60%E -0.847%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.88%EV -3.60%E -2.01%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -4.73%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 14:00
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.20%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -7.32%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.82%EV -5.87%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 14:00
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.11%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.64%EV -0.751%E -0.177%K -0.232%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.25%EV -6.55%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 14:01
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.65%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -4.73%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:01
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Betsson🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.14%EV -5.22%E -2.96%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.10%EV -8.96%E -2.31%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.76%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 14:01
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.73%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.73%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 14:00
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 14:01
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -5.76%E -3.29%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -14.36%E -3.93%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -10.40%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.16%EV -6.29%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -14.36%E -3.93%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -10.40%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.16%EV -6.29%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -14.36%E -3.93%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -10.40%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.16%EV -6.29%E -3.62%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -14.36%E -3.93%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -10.40%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.12%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -1.45%E -0.346%K -0.455%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -2.46%E -0.573%K -0.747%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 14:00
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.82%EV -7.37%E -4.29%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.80%E -0.927%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -3.60%E -0.847%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:01
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.37%E -4.29%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -7.37%E -4.29%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -15.53%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.91%E -4.63%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.80%E -0.927%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.46%E -0.573%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:01
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.45%E -4.97%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 14:01
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.39%EV -8.99%E -5.32%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.80%E -0.927%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -2.46%E -0.573%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:01
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.39%EV -8.99%E -5.32%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.80%E -0.927%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -2.46%E -0.573%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.77%EV -10.06%E -6.03%K -15.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -3.80%E -0.927%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -1.78%E -0.412%K -0.536%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:01
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -10.06%E -6.03%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.53%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.02%EV -10.60%E -6.39%K -16.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -14.36%E -3.93%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -12.67%E -3.29%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -11.14%E -6.75%K -17.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -4.73%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.04%EV -11.14%E -6.75%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.98%EV -8.96%E -2.31%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.98%EV -11.99%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-10 13:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.65%EV -11.68%E -7.12%K -18.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.32%EV -16.71%E -4.71%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -14.94%E -3.98%K -5.43%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-10 14:01
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.30%EV -12.76%E -7.87%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.98%EV -15.53%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.13%EV -13.29%E -8.26%K -21.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-10 18:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%9.2%2026-10-10 19:40
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%12.9%2026-10-10 14:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.73%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%169.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.73%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%169.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.73%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.13%169.5%2026-10-10 14:01