Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.40
assuming max odds 9.00
assuming max odds 5.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 69.19%; ADO Den Haag (Visit): 12.39%; Draw: 18.43%. For ADO Den Haag (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.07. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.48%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.21%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.48%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.165% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.95%EV +5.96%E +1.04%K +1.25%G +0.075% | 2.6% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.21%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.48%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.165% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.95%EV +5.96%E +1.04%K +1.25%G +0.075% | 2.6% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.21%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.48%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.165% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.95%EV +5.96%E +1.04%K +1.25%G +0.075% | 2.6% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.84%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 8.64I 11.57%NM 11.24%EV +7.02%E +0.813%K +0.919%G +0.065% | 5.13I 19.49%NM 18.92%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +5.29%E +0.622%K +0.705%G +0.037% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +1.35%E +0.246%K +0.301%G +0.004% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.35%E +0.246%K +0.301%G +0.004% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.35%E +0.246%K +0.301%G +0.004% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.490%E -0.091%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.490%E -0.091%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.490%E -0.091%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.40%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.93I 12.61%NM 12.08%EV -1.77%E -0.224%K -0.256%G +0.000% | 5.17I 19.34%NM 18.52%EV -4.73%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.19%EV -3.38%E -0.434%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.19%EV -3.38%E -0.434%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 18:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.35%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.00%EV -3.38%E -0.434%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -2.33%E -0.440%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -4.00%E -0.516%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 16:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 18:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 18:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.27%EV -5.22%E -3.81%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 16:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 11:32 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.22%E -3.81%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 18:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.09%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.94%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 16:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 18:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.54%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.13%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 18:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -12.13%E -9.55%K -44.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -10.20%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -15.23%E -3.31%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 18:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.29%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.23%EV -10.20%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.48%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-08 18:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.22%E -3.81%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.09%EV -10.81%E -1.50%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -4.18%E -0.803%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-08 17:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 16:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-08 16:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.47%E -2.62%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 17:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.47%E -2.62%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 18:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.79%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 12.96%EV -14.53%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.25%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 18:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.08%EV -7.29%E -5.44%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -19.49%E -3.00%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -19.49%E -3.00%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -12.47%E -2.62%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 10:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -19.49%E -3.00%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -15.23%E -3.31%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 16:54 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.99% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 11.01% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 18.00% | -0.1% | 2026-08-08 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 18:55 |
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