Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag

Início: 2026-08-08 19:00 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 2–0 ADO Den Haag

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Previsão 69.19%1.45odd justa
EV -3.14%
Vantagem -2.24%
Kelly -7.85%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
66.95%69.15%69.16%72.21%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.271.341.351.4078.74%74.45%74.07%71.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

ADO Den Haag (Visitante)

Previsão 12.39%8.07odd justa
EV +11.48%
Vantagem +1.28%
Kelly +1.44%
Crescimento +0.165%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.83%12.44%12.38%14.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.507.597.509.0015.38%13.18%13.33%11.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.43%5.43odd justa
EV +5.96%
Vantagem +1.04%
Kelly +1.25%
Crescimento +0.075%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.95%18.41%18.47%20.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.605.095.005.7521.74%19.66%20.00%17.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 69.19%; ADO Den Haag (Visitante): 12.39%; Empate: 18.43%. Para ADO Den Haag (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 8.07. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 9.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +11.48%.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.21%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.48%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.165%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.95%EV +5.96%E +1.04%K +1.25%G +0.075%2.6%2026-08-08 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.21%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.48%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.165%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.95%EV +5.96%E +1.04%K +1.25%G +0.075%2.6%2026-08-08 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.21%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.48%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.165%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.95%EV +5.96%E +1.04%K +1.25%G +0.075%2.6%2026-08-08 18:49
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.84%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.83%G +0.000%8.64I 11.57%NM 11.24%EV +7.02%E +0.813%K +0.919%G +0.065%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.92%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-08 18:54
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +5.29%E +0.622%K +0.705%G +0.037%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +1.35%E +0.246%K +0.301%G +0.004%5.1%2026-08-08 18:49
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.35%E +0.246%K +0.301%G +0.004%5.9%2026-08-08 18:54
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.35%E +0.246%K +0.301%G +0.004%5.9%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.490%E -0.091%K -0.111%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:50
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.490%E -0.091%K -0.111%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:50
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.490%E -0.091%K -0.111%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -8.68%E -6.57%K -27.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -0.905%E -0.113%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.40%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.93I 12.61%NM 12.08%EV -1.77%E -0.224%K -0.256%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.52%EV -4.73%E -0.914%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 18:45
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.83%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.19%EV -3.38%E -0.434%K -0.497%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 13:49
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.83%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.19%EV -3.38%E -0.434%K -0.497%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.35%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.00%EV -3.38%E -0.434%K -0.497%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -2.33%E -0.440%K -0.542%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -4.00%E -0.516%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 16:15
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 18:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 18:34
BetAnything🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV -5.86%E -0.771%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 18:04
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 16:35
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 18:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.27%EV -5.22%E -3.81%K -14.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 16:14
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 11:32
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.22%E -3.81%K -14.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 18:35
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.09%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.94%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 16:14
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -3.25%E -0.620%K -0.766%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 18:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 18:55
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 18:54
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.54%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.13%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 18:29
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -12.13%E -9.55%K -44.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -7.10%E -0.947%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.91%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -10.20%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -15.23%E -3.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.29%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.87%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.23%EV -10.20%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.48%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.22%E -3.81%K -14.10%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.09%EV -10.81%E -1.50%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -4.18%E -0.803%K -0.994%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 13:54
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.55%E -2.41%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 17:50
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 16:15
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -7.86%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 16:15
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.47%E -2.62%K -3.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.47%E -2.62%K -3.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.79%EV -10.06%E -7.74%K -33.53%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.96%EV -14.53%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.25%EV -9.70%E -1.98%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.08%EV -7.29%E -5.44%K -21.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -19.49%E -3.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -6.02%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -19.49%E -3.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -12.47%E -2.62%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 10:25
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.98%E -6.00%K -24.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -19.49%E -3.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -15.23%E -3.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 16:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi1.41I 70.92%NM 70.99%9.09I 11.00%NM 11.01%5.56I 17.99%NM 18.00%-0.1%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55