La escuela de los momios

AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag

2026-08-08 19:00 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Predicción 63.69%1.57momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -4.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.16%63.42%63.90%65.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.461.471.5375.19%68.39%68.03%65.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

ADO Den Haag (Visitante)

Predicción 16.30%6.14momio equitativo
EV +4.29%
Ventaja +0.671%
Kelly +0.795%
Crecimiento +0.034%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.85%16.47%16.09%19.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.705.535.506.4021.28%18.09%18.18%15.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.02%5.00momio equitativo
EV +0.094%
Ventaja +0.019%
Kelly +0.023%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.06%20.11%20.00%21.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.054.584.705.0024.69%21.84%21.28%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 63.79%EV -5.11%E -3.43%K -10.43%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.85%EV +4.29%E +0.671%K +0.795%G +0.034%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.36%EV -10.92%E -2.45%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 20:35
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.79%EV -5.11%E -3.43%K -10.43%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.85%EV +4.29%E +0.671%K +0.795%G +0.034%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.36%EV -10.92%E -2.45%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 20:30
Coolbet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +1.85%E +0.296%K +0.352%G +0.007%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.91%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 04:10
1xBet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.80%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.17I 16.21%NM 15.54%EV +0.545%E +0.088%K +0.105%G +0.001%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.65%EV -2.31%E -0.473%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 03:16
Pinnacle1.46I 68.49%NM 64.87%EV -7.02%E -4.81%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.53%EV -0.596%E -0.098%K -0.117%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.61%EV -3.31%E -0.685%K -0.864%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 21:39
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.04%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-23 07:19
SportsBet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -3.91%E -0.815%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 02:05
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -3.91%E -0.815%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 21:39
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -4.91%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 09:05
betano_uk1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -4.91%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-24 18:10
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -4.91%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 03:09
FanDuel1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -8.93%E -6.24%K -20.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.91%E -0.815%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-22 02:05
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -10.84%E -7.74%K -27.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -2.23%E -0.371%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -7.91%E -1.72%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 19:30
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.43%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -5.48%E -0.946%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.91%E -0.815%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 02:05
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -6.30%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV +0.094%E +0.019%K +0.023%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 20:05
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 63.96%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -6.30%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -7.91%E -1.72%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 19:30
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 62.62%EV -2.56%E -1.67%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.96%EV -3.91%E -0.815%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 23:04
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -2.56%E -1.67%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -4.91%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-25 23:04
BetRivers1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
Unibet (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
Unibet (NL)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
Casumo1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
Grosvenor1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
Svenska Spel1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
ATG (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
Unibet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:55
betPARX1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.91%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 20:00
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -10.84%E -7.74%K -27.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -10.37%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -9.92%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-22 02:00
Codere (IT)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.23%EV -5.11%E -3.43%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -12.00%E -2.22%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -9.92%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.57%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -14.45%E -2.75%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -3.91%E -0.815%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 23:04
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.65%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -14.45%E -2.75%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.97%EV -12.92%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 04:59
LiveScore Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 61.82%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -16.89%E -3.31%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.61%EV -12.92%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-25 19:55
Virgin Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 61.82%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -16.89%E -3.31%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.61%EV -12.92%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-25 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 61.98%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.50%EV -16.89%E -3.31%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.52%EV -12.92%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-25 19:55
NetBet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 63.08%EV -15.30%E -11.50%K -46.36%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.45%EV -16.89%E -3.31%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.46%EV -17.92%E -4.37%K -5.78%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-25 19:55
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -18.52%E -3.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.32%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 19:30
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -18.52%E -3.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.32%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 19:30
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -18.52%E -3.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.32%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 19:30
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -18.52%E -3.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -13.32%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 19:30
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.93%EV -8.93%E -6.24%K -20.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -18.52%E -3.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -12.92%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-25 19:55
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 61.98%EV -10.84%E -7.74%K -27.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -18.52%E -3.70%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.66%EV -15.92%E -3.79%K -4.98%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-22 02:00
Unibet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 60.79%EV -8.93%E -6.24%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.74%EV -20.15%E -4.11%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.47%EV -18.92%E -4.67%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-25 05:00
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -22.60%E -4.76%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -13.32%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-21 19:55
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 60.80%EV -8.93%E -6.24%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.50%EV -23.41%E -4.98%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.70%EV -15.92%E -3.79%K -4.98%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-25 05:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.58%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%1.5%2026-07-26 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.58%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%1.5%2026-07-25 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.58%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%1.5%2026-07-26 02:05
Smarkets1.54I 64.94%NM 63.12%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%2.9%2026-07-26 02:25