Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.27
assuming max odds 12.20
assuming max odds 7.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 76.49%; Excelsior (Visit): 9.41%; Draw: 14.10%. For Excelsior (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.63. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.82%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.53%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 12.20I 8.20%NM 7.88%EV +14.82%E +1.22%K +1.32%G +0.196% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.59%EV -7.08%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 17:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 17:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.46%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.24%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.29%EV -12.58%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.14%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.09%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 17:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.19%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 11.27I 8.87%NM 8.32%EV +6.07%E +0.539%K +0.591%G +0.036% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.49%EV -14.70%E -2.43%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.84%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 11.06I 9.04%NM 8.66%EV +4.09%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 7.09I 14.10%NM 13.50%EV -0.033%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-19 17:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 17:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.42%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 17:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 17:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 17:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 17:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 17:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 17:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 17:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-19 17:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.83%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.88%EV -5.53%E -0.826%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-19 17:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.49%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.22%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-19 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-19 17:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-19 17:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-19 17:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.85%EV -9.65%E -1.00%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.90%EV -4.12%E -0.606%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65%EV -2.86%E -2.25%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-19 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 17:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 17:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -18.22%E -3.14%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.21%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.64%EV -12.94%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.15%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-19 17:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.88%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.98%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.76%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.05%EV -16.24%E -1.82%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.19%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.55%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.19%EV -17.65%E -2.02%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.26%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-19 17:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.18%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-19 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-19 17:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.47%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -24.71%E -3.09%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 17:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.31% | 1.5% | 2026-09-19 17:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71% | 2.3% | 2026-09-19 17:55 |