StandardmodellInterquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Ajax v Excelsior

Spielbeginn: 2026-09-19 18:00 UTC

Endstand: Ajax 2–2 Excelsior

Schlussquote — die anhand der letzten vor Spielbeginn erfassten Preise berechneten Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Erwartungswerte nach Ihrem ausgewählten Modell. Das Spiel hat begonnen; dies sind daher keine aktuellen Werte. Zuverlässigkeit der Wahrscheinlichkeitsprognosen jedes Modells anhand aller abgeschlossenen Spiele beurteilen →

Direkter Vergleich

55 Wettanbieter (21 in der Analyse )

Geschätzte Wahrscheinlichkeit jedes Ergebnisses nach dem Modell: Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Ajax (Heim)

Prognose 76.49%1.31faire Quote
EV -2.86%
Vorteil -2.25%
Kelly -10.59%
Wachstum +0.000%

bei einer Höchstquote von 1.27

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
74.25%76.44%76.41%78.14%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
1.171.221.221.2785.47%82.04%81.97%78.74%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Excelsior (Auswärts)

Prognose 9.41%10.63faire Quote
EV +14.82%
Vorteil +1.22%
Kelly +1.32%
Wachstum +0.196%

bei einer Höchstquote von 12.20

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
7.88%9.45%9.40%11.23%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
8.0010.1210.0012.2012.50%9.88%10.00%8.20%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Unentschieden

Prognose 14.10%7.09faire Quote
EV +2.93%
Vorteil +0.401%
Kelly +0.465%
Wachstum +0.014%

bei einer Höchstquote von 7.30

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
13.02%14.12%14.19%15.52%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
5.806.516.507.3017.24%15.36%15.38%13.70%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Bei den letzten Quoten vor Spielbeginn schätzte Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste) für Direkter Vergleich: Ajax (Heim): 76.49%; Excelsior (Auswärts): 9.41%; Unentschieden: 14.10%. Für Excelsior (Auswärts) entsprach diese Schätzung einer fairen Dezimalquote von 10.63. 13 Wettanbieter boten Schlussquoten über diesem Wert an; die beste betrug 12.20 und entsprach einem positiven Erwartungswert von +14.82%.

Wettanbieterquoten (55 Wettanbieter)

Wir sind mit keinem Wettanbieter verbunden und erhalten keinerlei Ertrag aus Handlungen, die bei diesen Anbietern vorgenommen werden.

WettanbieterHeimAuswärts ▼UnentschiedenMargeAktualisiert
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.53%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.88%EV +14.82%E +1.22%K +1.32%G +0.196%6.59I 15.17%NM 14.59%EV -7.08%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-19 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-19 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-19 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-19 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 17:45
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 17:44
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.46%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.24%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.29%EV -12.58%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.14%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.09%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 17:54
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.19%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.27I 8.87%NM 8.32%EV +6.07%E +0.539%K +0.591%G +0.036%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.49%EV -14.70%E -2.43%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.84%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.06I 9.04%NM 8.66%EV +4.09%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017%7.09I 14.10%NM 13.50%EV -0.033%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-19 17:49
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.42%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 17:39
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 17:49
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:54
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 17:44
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 17:35
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:55
Casumo🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:55
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.83%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.88%EV -5.53%E -0.826%K -0.971%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 17:49
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.49%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.22%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:54
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:39
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.85%EV -9.65%E -1.00%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.90%EV -4.12%E -0.606%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 17:34
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65%EV -2.86%E -2.25%K -10.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 17:50
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 17:44
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -18.22%E -3.14%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-19 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.21%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.64%EV -12.94%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.15%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:44
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.88%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.98%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.76%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.05%EV -16.24%E -1.82%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.19%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.55%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.19%EV -17.65%E -2.02%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.26%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.18%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.47%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -24.71%E -3.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 17:35
Marge = Marge (Wahrscheinlichkeitsüberschuss) · I = Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit · NM = Margenbereinigte Wahrscheinlichkeit · EV = Erwartungswert · E = Vorteil · K = Kelly-Kriterium · G = Wachstum des Wettkapitals

Aktualisiert gibt an, wann der jeweilige Wettanbieter seinen Preis zuletzt geändert hat. Eine ältere Zeit bedeutet also, dass sich die Quote lediglich nicht bewegt hat, nicht dass sie veraltet ist. Anbieter, die seit etwa 15 Minuten nicht mehr erfasst wurden, werden normalerweise ausgeschlossen; nur wenn die Datenquelle eines ganzen Marktes verstummt, erscheinen stattdessen die zuletzt erfassten Preise.

Wettbörsen (6)

WettanbieterHeimAuswärtsUnentschiedenMarge ▲Aktualisiert
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Matchbook◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Smarkets◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.31%1.5%2026-09-19 17:50
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71%2.3%2026-09-19 17:55