Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ajax v Excelsior

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-19 18:00 UTC

Score final : Ajax 2–2 Excelsior

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ajax (Local)

Prévision 76.49%1.31cote équitable
EV -2.86%
Avantage -2.25%
Kelly -10.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.27

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
74.25%76.44%76.41%78.14%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.171.221.221.2785.47%82.04%81.97%78.74%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Excelsior (Visiteur)

Prévision 9.41%10.63cote équitable
EV +14.82%
Avantage +1.22%
Kelly +1.32%
Croissance +0.196%

avec la cote maximale 12.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.88%9.45%9.40%11.23%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
8.0010.1210.0012.2012.50%9.88%10.00%8.20%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 14.10%7.09cote équitable
EV +2.93%
Avantage +0.401%
Kelly +0.465%
Croissance +0.014%

avec la cote maximale 7.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.02%14.12%14.19%15.52%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
5.806.516.507.3017.24%15.36%15.38%13.70%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Ajax (Local) : 76.49% ; Excelsior (Visiteur) : 9.41% ; Match nul : 14.10%. Pour Excelsior (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 10.63. 13 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 12.20, soit une espérance positive de +14.82%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.53%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.88%EV +14.82%E +1.22%K +1.32%G +0.196%6.59I 15.17%NM 14.59%EV -7.08%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-19 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-19 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-19 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-19 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 17:45
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 17:44
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.46%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.24%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.29%EV -12.58%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.14%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.09%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 17:54
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.19%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.27I 8.87%NM 8.32%EV +6.07%E +0.539%K +0.591%G +0.036%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.49%EV -14.70%E -2.43%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.84%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.06I 9.04%NM 8.66%EV +4.09%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017%7.09I 14.10%NM 13.50%EV -0.033%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-19 17:49
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.42%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 17:39
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 17:49
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:54
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 17:44
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 17:35
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:55
Casumo🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:55
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.83%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.88%EV -5.53%E -0.826%K -0.971%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 17:49
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.49%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.22%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:54
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:39
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.85%EV -9.65%E -1.00%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.90%EV -4.12%E -0.606%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 17:34
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65%EV -2.86%E -2.25%K -10.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 17:50
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 17:44
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -18.22%E -3.14%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-19 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.21%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.64%EV -12.94%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.15%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:44
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.88%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.98%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.76%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.05%EV -16.24%E -1.82%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.19%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.55%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.19%EV -17.65%E -2.02%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.26%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.18%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.47%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -24.71%E -3.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 17:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Matchbook◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Smarkets◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.31%1.5%2026-09-19 17:50
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71%2.3%2026-09-19 17:55