Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Ajax v Excelsior

Inizio: 2026-09-19 18:00 UTC

Finale: Ajax 2–2 Excelsior

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

55 bookmaker (21 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Ajax (Casa)

Previsione 76.49%1.31quota equa
EV -2.86%
Vantaggio -2.25%
Kelly -10.59%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.27

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
74.25%76.44%76.41%78.14%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.171.221.221.2785.47%82.04%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Excelsior (Trasferta)

Previsione 9.41%10.63quota equa
EV +14.82%
Vantaggio +1.22%
Kelly +1.32%
Crescita +0.196%

ipotizzando la quota massima 12.20

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
7.88%9.45%9.40%11.23%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
8.0010.1210.0012.2012.50%9.88%10.00%8.20%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 14.10%7.09quota equa
EV +2.93%
Vantaggio +0.401%
Kelly +0.465%
Crescita +0.014%

ipotizzando la quota massima 7.30

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
13.02%14.12%14.19%15.52%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
5.806.516.507.3017.24%15.36%15.38%13.70%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Ajax (Casa): 76.49%; Excelsior (Trasferta): 9.41%; Pareggio: 14.10%. Per Excelsior (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 10.63. 13 bookmaker offrivano quote di chiusura superiori a tale livello; la migliore era 12.20, corrispondente a un valore atteso positivo del +14.82%.

Quote dei bookmaker (55 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.53%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.88%EV +14.82%E +1.22%K +1.32%G +0.196%6.59I 15.17%NM 14.59%EV -7.08%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-19 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-19 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.15%EV -3.62%E -2.88%K -13.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.45%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-19 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-19 17:55
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 17:45
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 17:44
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.46%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.24%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.29%EV -12.58%E -2.03%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.14%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.09%EV +8.24%E +0.716%K +0.784%G +0.065%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 17:54
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.19%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.27I 8.87%NM 8.32%EV +6.07%E +0.539%K +0.591%G +0.036%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.49%EV -14.70%E -2.43%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.84%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.06I 9.04%NM 8.66%EV +4.09%E +0.370%K +0.407%G +0.017%7.09I 14.10%NM 13.50%EV -0.033%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-19 17:49
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-19 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.42%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 17:39
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +3.53%E +0.321%K +0.353%G +0.012%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.02%EV +2.93%E +0.401%K +0.465%G +0.014%5.2%2026-09-19 17:34
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 17:49
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -1.18%E -0.112%K -0.124%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:54
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 17:44
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 17:35
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:55
Casumo🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:55
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.83%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.88%EV -5.53%E -0.826%K -0.971%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 17:49
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.49%EV -5.92%E -4.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.22%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:54
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 17:39
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -5.88%E -0.588%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.85%EV -9.65%E -1.00%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.90%EV -4.12%E -0.606%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 17:34
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65%EV -2.86%E -2.25%K -10.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 17:50
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 17:44
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -5.15%E -4.16%K -21.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -18.22%E -3.14%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -10.59%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-19 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.21%EV -10.51%E -8.98%K -61.81%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.64%EV -12.94%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.15%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.39%E -3.51%K -17.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.35%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:44
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.88%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -15.29%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.98%EV -13.99%E -2.29%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.76%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.05%EV -16.24%E -1.82%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.19%EV -11.17%E -1.77%K -2.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.55%EV -9.74%E -8.26%K -54.13%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.19%EV -17.65%E -2.02%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.26%EV -11.88%E -1.90%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.18%EV -8.21%E -6.84%K -41.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -1.30%E -0.186%K -0.217%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -6.68%E -5.48%K -30.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -20.00%E -2.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -15.40%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.47%EV -8.98%E -7.55%K -47.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -24.71%E -3.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -4.83%E -0.715%K -0.839%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 17:35
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Matchbook◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-09-19 17:55
Smarkets◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.31%1.5%2026-09-19 17:50
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71%2.3%2026-09-19 17:55