Language:English
Toluca v Pachuca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 49.32%2.03fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.73%49.38%49.44%52.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.831.831.9759.52%54.54%54.64%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pachuca (Visit)
Prediction 25.06%3.99fair odd
EV +5.26%
Edge +1.25%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.087%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.66%24.96%25.00%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.783.764.2030.30%26.47%26.60%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.62%3.90fair odd
EV -0.087%
Edge -0.022%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%25.67%25.56%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.593.603.9032.26%27.89%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 49.32%; Pachuca (Visit): 25.06%; Draw: 25.62%. For Pachuca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV +5.26%E +1.25%K +1.65%G +0.087% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV +5.26%E +1.25%K +1.65%G +0.087% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-04 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.09%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -12.71%E -7.18%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.20%EV -13.20%E -7.50%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -14.19%E -8.15%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -14.19%E -8.15%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.87%EV -6.79%E -3.59%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.10%EV +0.002%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.04%EV -1.62%E -0.423%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.33%EV -0.500%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.62%EV -3.42%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.81%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -1.00%E -0.253%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -0.087%E -0.022%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-04 00:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.81%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -1.00%E -0.253%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -0.087%E -0.022%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.27%EV -15.17%E -8.82%K -21.07%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.76%EV -1.00%E -0.253%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.37%EV -17.15%E -10.21%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.85%EV -3.51%E -0.911%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.37%EV -17.15%E -10.21%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.85%EV -3.51%E -0.911%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.27%EV -4.26%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.61%EV -7.26%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 01:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 01:11 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.82%EV -3.34%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.45%EV -5.76%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.72%EV -4.70%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-04 00:36 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.24%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.51%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.91%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.54%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -11.62%E -3.37%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 00:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.26%EV -2.84%E -1.44%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 00:31 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -11.03%E -3.11%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 00:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-04 00:56 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 00:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 00:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -20.58%E -6.64%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.54%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -13.53%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -13.53%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 00:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.68%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -14.79%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.55%EV -12.13%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-04 00:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.56%EV -14.68%E -8.49%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -14.79%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -17.29%E -5.24%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.59% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 01:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 2.1% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20% | 3.1% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |