La escuela de los momiosToluca v Pachuca
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toluca (Local)
Predicción 49.32%2.03momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -2.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.97
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.73%49.38%49.44%52.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.681.831.831.9759.52%54.54%54.64%50.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Pachuca (Visitante)
Predicción 25.06%3.99momio equitativo
EV +5.26%
Ventaja +1.25%
Kelly +1.65%
Crecimiento +0.087%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.66%24.96%25.00%26.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.783.764.2030.30%26.47%26.60%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 25.62%3.90momio equitativo
EV -0.087%
Ventaja -0.022%
Kelly -0.030%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.75%25.67%25.56%27.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.593.603.9032.26%27.89%27.78%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV +5.26%E +1.25%K +1.65%G +0.087% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV +5.26%E +1.25%K +1.65%G +0.087% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Unibet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Casumo | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Grosvenor | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| betPARX | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV +2.76%E +0.673%K +0.890%G +0.025% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| FanDuel | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-04 01:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.09%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| BetRivers | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -12.71%E -7.18%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.20%EV -13.20%E -7.50%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -14.19%E -8.15%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -14.19%E -8.15%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV +0.252%E +0.063%K +0.084%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| 1xBet | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.87%EV -6.79%E -3.59%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.10%EV +0.002%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.04%EV -1.62%E -0.423%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.33%EV -0.500%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.62%EV -3.42%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.81%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -1.00%E -0.253%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -0.087%E -0.022%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-04 00:45 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.81%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.44%EV -1.00%E -0.253%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -0.087%E -0.022%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.27%EV -15.17%E -8.82%K -21.07%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.76%EV -1.00%E -0.253%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.37%EV -17.15%E -10.21%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.85%EV -3.51%E -0.911%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.37%EV -17.15%E -10.21%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.85%EV -3.51%E -0.911%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.27%EV -4.26%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.61%EV -7.26%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 01:09 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 01:11 |
| BetUS | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.76%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| GTbets | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.82%EV -3.34%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.45%EV -5.76%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.72%EV -4.70%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-04 00:36 |
| BetMGM | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| PlayUp | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.24%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Bovada | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.51%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Fliff | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.91%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Everygame | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.54%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -11.62%E -3.37%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 00:50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.26%EV -2.84%E -1.44%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 00:41 |
| NordicBet | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Betsson | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.27%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
| Betway | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
| Fanatics | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 00:31 |
| Bet Right | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -11.03%E -3.11%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 00:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-04 00:56 |
| Coral | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 00:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 00:55 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -8.76%E -4.74%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.46%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 01:06 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -12.28%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -20.58%E -6.64%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.54%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -13.53%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.39%EV -12.21%E -6.86%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -13.53%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 00:50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.68%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -14.79%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.55%EV -12.13%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-04 00:49 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.56%EV -14.68%E -8.49%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -14.79%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%EV -10.24%E -5.63%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -17.29%E -5.24%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-04 00:51 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.59% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 01:05 |
| Smarkets | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.22% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 2.1% | 2026-05-04 01:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20% | 3.1% | 2026-05-04 01:00 |