Language:English
Puebla v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Puebla (Local)
Prediction 20.46%4.89fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.466%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.43%20.46%20.45%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.514.504.8023.81%22.19%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 56.59%1.77fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -8.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.58%56.65%56.64%58.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.6763.69%61.68%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.95%4.36fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.400%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.74%22.89%22.91%23.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.984.004.3026.67%25.14%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puebla (Local): 20.46%; Toluca (Visit): 56.59%; Draw: 22.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.30, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -1.77%E -0.369%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.18%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -2.47%E -0.581%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 01:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -1.77%E -0.369%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.79%EV -10.03%E -6.31%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.96%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.46%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.60%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-31 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -7.76%E -4.76%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.16%EV -3.41%E -0.722%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 13:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.16%EV -3.41%E -0.722%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 13:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.21%EV -3.82%E -0.812%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.89%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.89%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 17:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.28%EV -4.23%E -0.903%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.84%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 18:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.93%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.88%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.35%EV -5.05%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.43%EV -3.39%E -0.804%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.21%EV -5.66%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.80%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 12:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.07%E -3.65%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.07%E -3.65%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 20:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 03:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 04:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.57%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 01:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.56%EV -10.98%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.90%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-02 08:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.58%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.54%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.65%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.81%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-02 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.06%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -13.03%E -3.07%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-02 20:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -14.05%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -14.05%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.63%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.73% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 34.06% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 46.35% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 19.58% | 27.6% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |