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Puebla v Toluca
Коэффициенты закрытия — вероятности и ожидаемая ценность, рассчитанные выбранной моделью по последним коэффициентам, зарегистрированным до начала матча. Матч уже начался, поэтому это не текущие показатели. Оценить надёжность вероятностных прогнозов каждой модели по результатам всех завершённых матчей →
Победитель встречи
Puebla (Хозяева)
Прогноз 20.46%4.89справедливый коэффициент
EV -1.77%
Преимущество -0.369%
Kelly -0.466%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 4.80
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
19.43%20.46%20.45%21.36%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
4.204.514.504.8023.81%22.19%22.22%20.83%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Toluca (Гости)
Прогноз 56.59%1.77справедливый коэффициент
EV -5.50%
Преимущество -3.29%
Kelly -8.21%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 1.67
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
55.58%56.65%56.64%58.79%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
1.571.621.621.6763.69%61.68%61.73%59.88%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Ничья
Прогноз 22.95%4.36справедливый коэффициент
EV -1.32%
Преимущество -0.307%
Kelly -0.400%
Рост +0.000%
при максимальном коэффициенте 4.30
Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
21.74%22.89%22.91%23.97%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
3.753.984.004.3026.67%25.14%25.00%23.26%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
По последним коэффициентам перед началом модель Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список) оценивала рынок «Победитель встречи» так: Puebla (Хозяева): 20.46%; Toluca (Гости): 56.59%; Ничья: 22.95%. Для исхода «Ничья» эта оценка соответствовала справедливому десятичному коэффициенту 4.36. Ни один подходящий букмекер не предлагал итоговый коэффициент выше этого уровня: лучший составлял 4.30, математическое ожидание — -1.32%; положительного ожидания не было.
Коэффициенты букмекерских контор (46 букмекерских контор)
Мы не связаны ни с одной букмекерской конторой и ничего не зарабатываем на действиях, совершаемых у них.
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева ▼ | Гости | Ничья | Маржа | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -1.77%E -0.369%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.18%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -2.47%E -0.581%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 01:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -1.77%E -0.369%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.79%EV -10.03%E -6.31%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.96%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.46%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.60%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-31 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -7.76%E -4.76%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.16%EV -3.41%E -0.722%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 13:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.16%EV -3.41%E -0.722%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 13:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.21%EV -3.82%E -0.812%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.89%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.89%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 17:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.28%EV -4.23%E -0.903%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.84%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 18:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.93%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.88%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.35%EV -5.05%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.43%EV -3.39%E -0.804%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.21%EV -5.66%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.80%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 12:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.07%E -3.65%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.07%E -3.65%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-02 20:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 03:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 04:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 19:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.57%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 01:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-31 01:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.56%EV -10.98%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.90%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-02 08:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.58%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-03 01:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.54%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.65%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.81%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-02 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.06%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-30 00:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -13.03%E -3.07%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-02 20:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -14.05%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -14.05%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.63%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
Маржа = Маржа · I = Подразумеваемая вероятность · NM = Вероятность без маржи · EV = Ожидаемая ценность · E = Преимущество · K = Критерий Келли · G = Рост капитала
Обновлено — время последнего изменения коэффициента каждой букмекерской конторой. Более раннее время означает лишь, что коэффициент не менялся, а не что он устарел. Конторы, от которых около 15 минут не поступали данные, обычно исключаются; последние зарегистрированные коэффициенты показываются только тогда, когда перестаёт обновляться весь поток данных по рынку.
Биржи ставок (6)
| Букмекерская контора | Хозяева | Гости | Ничья | Маржа ▲ | Обновлено |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.73% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 34.06% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 46.35% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 19.58% | 27.6% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |