StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Puebla v Toluca

Matchstart: 2026-09-05 01:00 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

46 spelbolag (17 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Puebla (Hemma)

Prognos 20.46%4.89rättvist odds
EV -1.77%
Fördel -0.369%
Kelly -0.466%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 4.80

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
19.43%20.46%20.45%21.36%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
4.204.514.504.8023.81%22.19%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Toluca (Borta)

Prognos 56.59%1.77rättvist odds
EV -5.50%
Fördel -3.29%
Kelly -8.21%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.67

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
55.58%56.65%56.64%58.79%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.571.621.621.6763.69%61.68%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 22.95%4.36rättvist odds
EV -1.32%
Fördel -0.307%
Kelly -0.400%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 4.30

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
21.74%22.89%22.91%23.97%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
3.753.984.004.3026.67%25.14%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Puebla (Hemma): 20.46%; Toluca (Borta): 56.59%; Oavgjort: 22.95%. För Oavgjort motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 4.36. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 4.30, med väntevärdet -1.32%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (46 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaOavgjortMarginalUppdaterat
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -1.77%E -0.369%K -0.466%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.18%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -2.47%E -0.581%K -0.760%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 01:04
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -1.77%E -0.369%K -0.466%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.79%EV -10.03%E -6.31%K -16.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 01:05
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.96%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.46%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 01:05
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.60%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 00:25
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -2.80%E -0.588%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -7.76%E -4.76%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 01:05
LowVig.ag🎯4.72I 21.19%NM 20.16%EV -3.41%E -0.722%K -0.916%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.72I 21.19%NM 20.16%EV -3.41%E -0.722%K -0.916%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.97%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -4.53%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 13:25
BetUS🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.21%EV -3.82%E -0.812%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.89%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.89%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:10
Pinnacle🎯4.68I 21.37%NM 20.28%EV -4.23%E -0.903%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.84%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.93%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.88%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 12:35
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 01:00
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV -4.84%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.52%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 01:05
GTbets🎯4.64I 21.55%NM 20.35%EV -5.05%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.43%EV -3.39%E -0.804%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 21:40
1xBet🎯4.61I 21.69%NM 20.21%EV -5.66%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.80%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV -7.06%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 12:39
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.07%E -3.65%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.86%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.07%E -3.65%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 20:10
Bet Right🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 01:05
betano_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 03:59
Bet Victor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 04:00
Unibet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:35
Casumo🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:35
Grosvenor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:34
BetRivers🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:35
betPARX🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:34
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -7.91%E -1.76%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 01:05
DraftKings🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.57%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 01:19
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 01:15
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 01:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 01:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.16%EV -9.96%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 01:15
TABtouch🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.56%EV -10.98%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.90%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 00:05
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 08:10
LeoVegas🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.58%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 01:14
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-02 22:15
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.54%EV -11.39%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.65%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.81%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-03 01:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -6.63%E -4.02%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-30 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-30 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -12.00%E -2.79%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.06%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-30 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -13.03%E -3.07%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-02 20:10
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -14.05%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 10:40
NetBet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -14.05%E -3.35%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.63%EV -10.59%E -6.70%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-04 12:35
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (6)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.73%1.1%2026-09-04 12:50
Matchbook◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%5.2%2026-09-03 01:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%5.4%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%5.4%2026-09-04 13:10
Smarkets◎4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%9.0%2026-09-03 02:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 34.06%1.69I 59.17%NM 46.35%4.00I 25.00%NM 19.58%27.6%2026-09-04 13:10