The School of Odds

Puebla v Guadalajara

2026-08-01 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Puebla (Local)

Prediction 25.91%3.86fair odd
EV -6.20%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%25.98%25.85%26.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.553.6231%28%28%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Guadalajara (Visit)

Prediction 48.03%2.08fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.76%47.97%48.11%48.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.932.0056%52%52%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.06%3.84fair odd
EV -6.20%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.05%26.04%26.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.553.6031%28%28%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.62I 27.62%NM 25.74%EV -6.20%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.02%EV -6.82%E -3.51%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 08:59
Marathon Bet3.62I 27.62%NM 25.61%EV -6.20%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.28%EV -7.78%E -4.05%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 09:00
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.93%E -1.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-20 19:35
FanDuel3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.34%E -3.25%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 19:34
SportsBet3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -6.82%E -3.51%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-20 19:35
Fanatics3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.72%E -1.87%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.26%E -4.32%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 19:35
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -9.31%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -8.74%E -4.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.81%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-20 19:32
Betclic (FR)3.47I 28.82%NM 25.29%EV -10.09%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.75%EV -13.54%E -7.52%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.96%EV -11.93%E -3.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-20 19:33
Betsson3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -10.61%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -4.89%E -2.47%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-20 19:35
NordicBet3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -10.61%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -4.89%E -2.47%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-20 19:35
LeoVegas3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.61%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.70%E -5.16%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.81%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-21 09:00
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 26.62%EV -15.79%E -4.86%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.76%EV -11.14%E -6.02%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.62%EV -15.32%E -4.71%K -6.81%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-20 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.