Language:English
Puebla v Guadalajara
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Puebla (Local)
Prediction 16.07%6.22fair odd
EV +5.29%
Edge +0.807%
Kelly +0.952%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 6.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.44%16.11%16.17%18.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.685.606.5520.00%17.60%17.86%15.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Guadalajara (Visit)
Prediction 62.94%1.59fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.68%62.88%62.87%64.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.481.491.5572.46%67.59%67.11%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.98%4.77fair odd
EV +0.502%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.72%21.01%20.96%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.314.204.7925.32%23.21%23.81%20.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puebla (Local): 16.07%; Guadalajara (Visit): 62.94%; Draw: 20.98%. For Puebla (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.22. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.77%EV +5.29%E +0.807%K +0.952%G +0.050% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.91%EV -6.21%E -4.17%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.32%EV -0.128%E -0.027%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.77%EV +5.29%E +0.807%K +0.952%G +0.050% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.91%EV -6.21%E -4.17%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.32%EV -0.128%E -0.027%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +4.48%E +0.689%K +0.815%G +0.037% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -8.73%E -6.02%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.58%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-01 00:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.43I 15.55%NM 14.80%EV +3.36%E +0.522%K +0.618%G +0.021% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.29%EV -6.84%E -4.62%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -4.53%E -0.996%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 00:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.23I 16.05%NM 15.47%EV +0.142%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.27%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.25%EV -0.128%E -0.027%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 00:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.11I 16.37%NM 15.75%EV -1.79%E -0.293%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.09%EV +0.502%E +0.105%K +0.132%G +0.001% | 3.9% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -3.56%E -0.593%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.60%EV -6.21%E -4.17%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -3.48%E -0.758%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.56%E -0.593%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -8.73%E -6.02%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -5.58%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.56%E -0.593%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -9.99%E -6.99%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -1.39%E -0.295%K -0.375%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.57%EV -4.36%E -0.733%K -0.881%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.03%EV -7.47%E -5.08%K -15.90%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -9.15%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -5.16%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -4.32%E -2.85%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -12.93%E -3.11%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -5.16%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -4.32%E -2.85%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -12.93%E -3.11%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV -5.16%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.90%EV -8.10%E -5.55%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -3.48%E -0.758%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-01 00:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.38%EV -6.77%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.28%EV -2.44%E -1.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -10.83%E -2.55%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.38%EV -6.77%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.28%EV -2.44%E -1.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -10.83%E -2.55%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -7.57%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.58%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -7.57%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.58%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -7.57%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -9.15%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-01 00:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -7.57%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -13.98%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-01 00:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.70%EV -7.57%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.27%EV -8.73%E -6.02%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -13.98%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-01 00:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -8.38%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.43%EV -8.73%E -6.02%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -5.58%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.46%EV -4.32%E -2.85%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.59%EV -3.27%E -0.710%K -0.907%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.62%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.32%E -2.85%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.95%E -3.28%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.95%E -3.28%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.95%E -3.28%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.95%E -3.28%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.95%E -3.28%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.95%E -3.28%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.98%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -9.99%E -1.78%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.33%EV -7.47%E -5.08%K -15.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -9.78%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-01 00:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -6.21%E -4.17%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -13.98%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -6.21%E -4.17%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -13.98%E -3.41%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -5.58%E -3.72%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -16.07%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.35%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.17%EV -7.47%E -5.08%K -15.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -16.07%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-01 00:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -11.88%E -8.48%K -29.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -7.68%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-01 00:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.59%E -2.11%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -11.88%E -8.48%K -29.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -7.68%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-01 00:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.28%EV -13.20%E -2.44%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.47%EV -9.99%E -6.99%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.25%EV -17.12%E -4.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.39%EV -14.81%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 62.93%EV -13.14%E -9.52%K -34.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.68%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-08-01 00:53 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -15.61%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.40%EV -2.44%E -1.57%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -2.44%E -0.524%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 00:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.03%EV -15.61%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.67%EV -8.73%E -6.02%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-01 00:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.67%EV -15.61%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.50%EV -11.88%E -8.48%K -29.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -11.88%E -2.83%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-01 00:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -19.63%E -3.93%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.36%E -6.50%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.07%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -19.63%E -3.93%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.36%E -6.50%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.07%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -19.63%E -3.93%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.36%E -6.50%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.07%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -19.63%E -3.93%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.36%E -6.50%K -21.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -16.07%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-01 00:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.46% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.46% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.46% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.46% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 1.8% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.28% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96% | 2.3% | 2026-08-01 00:55 |