L’École des cotes

Puebla v Guadalajara

2026-08-01 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Puebla (Local)

Prévision 23.74%4.21cote équitable
EV -1.22%
Avantage -0.294%
Kelly -0.387%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.16

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.83%23.79%23.89%25.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.863.904.1628.57%25.91%25.64%24.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Guadalajara (Visiteur)

Prévision 51.15%1.96cote équitable
EV -1.79%
Avantage -0.934%
Kelly -1.95%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.92

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.23%51.29%50.92%53.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.731.811.801.9257.80%55.31%55.56%52.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.11%3.98cote équitable
EV +0.928%
Avantage +0.231%
Kelly +0.307%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 4.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.67%24.92%25.19%26.12%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.673.654.0230.30%27.25%27.40%24.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -1.22%E -0.294%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.46%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.67%EV +0.928%E +0.231%K +0.307%G +0.003%5.1%2026-07-26 04:24
LowVig.ag4.16I 24.04%NM 22.87%EV -1.22%E -0.294%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.46%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.67%EV +0.928%E +0.231%K +0.307%G +0.003%5.1%2026-07-26 04:24
Pinnacle4.16I 24.04%NM 22.83%EV -1.22%E -0.294%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.36%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.81%EV +0.175%E +0.044%K +0.058%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 00:20
Coolbet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -3.84%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -3.34%E -0.868%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 04:34
Fanatics4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.60%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 23:39
1xBet3.99I 25.06%NM 23.34%EV -5.26%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.02%EV -8.44%E -4.72%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.64%EV -5.10%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 23:23
Marathon Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.34%EV -9.47%E -5.35%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.51%EV -5.10%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 23:14
SportsBet3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.37%E -2.91%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.37%E -2.91%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 23:35
Betsson3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -3.84%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 04:44
NordicBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -3.84%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 04:44
FanDuel3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 23:34
GTbets3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.23%EV -1.79%E -0.934%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 00:04
LeoVegas3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -12.14%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.93%E -4.41%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 01:04
Bet Victor3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 00:23
betano_uk3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 00:24
Unibet (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.96%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -5.89%E -3.20%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 00:19
Paddy Power3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.96%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.93%E -4.41%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 23:34
betfred_uk3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 04:34
Betclic (FR)3.68I 27.17%NM 24.28%EV -12.62%E -3.43%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.19%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 00:18
888sport3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -11.51%E -6.65%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 00:14
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -11.51%E -6.65%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 00:14
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -11.51%E -6.65%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 00:14
888sport (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -11.51%E -6.65%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 00:14
Sky Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -16.89%E -4.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -10.49%E -5.99%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -17.15%E -5.20%K -7.46%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-25 23:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (1)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 24.89%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.08%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.03%16.4%2026-07-26 00:20