Language:English
León v Pachuca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
León (Local)
Prediction 31.71%3.15fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.12%31.77%31.70%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.0736.36%34.42%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pachuca (Visit)
Prediction 40.14%2.49fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.676%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.82%40.06%40.14%40.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.302.302.4546.30%43.56%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.15%3.55fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.585%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%28.17%28.16%29.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.5033.33%30.63%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: León (Local): 31.71%; Pachuca (Visit): 40.14%; Draw: 28.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.47%EV -2.66%E -0.867%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.60%EV -4.47%E -1.88%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.93%EV -2.59%E -0.748%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-02 00:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.47%EV -2.66%E -0.867%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.60%EV -4.47%E -1.88%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.93%EV -2.59%E -0.748%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-02 00:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.75%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.02%EV -2.86%E -1.18%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.23%EV -3.43%E -1.00%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-02 00:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.83%EV -6.47%E -2.78%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.83%EV -6.47%E -2.78%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -4.88%E -1.63%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 00:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.88%E -1.63%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-02 00:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 00:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.76%EV -8.78%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-02 00:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -8.48%E -3.72%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-02 00:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.63%EV -7.10%E -2.42%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.77%EV -6.47%E -2.78%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.60%EV -8.78%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-02 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.00%EV -7.42%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -4.47%E -1.88%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.00%EV -7.42%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -4.47%E -1.88%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-02 00:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.81%EV -7.42%E -2.54%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.67%EV -8.78%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-01 17:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.79%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.82%EV -1.66%E -0.676%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 17:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-02 00:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-02 00:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-02 00:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-02 00:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-02 00:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.05%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-02 00:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -8.69%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.46%E -0.418%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-02 00:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -8.69%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.46%E -0.418%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-02 00:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.33%EV -8.69%E -3.02%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.47%EV -10.49%E -4.70%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.18%EV -9.00%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.68%EV -11.69%E -5.31%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.14%EV -10.47%E -3.29%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-02 00:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.64%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -5.67%E -2.41%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.64%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-02 00:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -7.68%E -3.34%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -11.69%E -5.31%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-02 00:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -11.69%E -5.31%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -9.91%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-02 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-02 00:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-02 00:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-02 00:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-02 00:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 40.70%EV -13.30%E -6.16%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.91%EV -11.32%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-02 00:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -12.81%E -4.66%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.70%EV -12.81%E -4.66%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.18%EV -12.90%E -5.94%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-08-02 00:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-02 00:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.56% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-02 00:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10% | 1.7% | 2026-08-02 00:55 |