The School of Odds

León v Pachuca

2026-08-02 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

León (Local)

Prediction 32.70%3.06fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.95%32.66%32.67%33.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.772.9238%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Pachuca (Visit)

Prediction 39.86%2.51fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%39.87%39.88%40.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.312.4047%44%43%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.74%27.47%27.45%28.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.303.353.5032%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -4.52%E -1.55%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.52%E -3.24%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-20 19:35
Betsson2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -4.52%E -1.55%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.52%E -3.24%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-20 19:35
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.17%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-20 19:35
1xBet2.86I 34.97%NM 32.59%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.83%EV -6.72%E -2.87%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -7.25%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-20 19:35
Coolbet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -6.81%E -2.39%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -4.33%E -1.80%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 19:35
Marathon Bet2.84I 35.21%NM 32.63%EV -7.14%E -2.51%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -7.52%E -3.24%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.42%EV -7.25%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 19:35
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.44%E -3.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 19:35
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.44%E -3.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.32%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.96%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 19:34
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.08%E -3.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.31%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -8.08%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-20 22:09
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.08%E -3.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.31%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.94%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-20 19:35
888sport2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.08%E -3.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.31%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.94%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-20 19:35
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.08%E -3.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.31%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.94%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-20 19:35
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.08%E -3.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.31%E -4.58%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.94%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-20 19:35
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -11.71%E -4.34%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.32%E -3.62%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.45%E -2.86%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-20 19:32
Betclic (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.48%EV -11.71%E -4.34%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.79%EV -14.30%E -6.65%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.74%EV -10.00%E -3.05%K -4.39%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-20 19:33
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 33.11%EV -14.98%E -5.76%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -12.30%E -5.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -14.94%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-20 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.