Language:English
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Cerezo Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)
Prediction 59.19%1.69fair odd
EV -5.30%
Edge -3.31%
Kelly -8.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.66%59.13%59.21%60.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.6066.67%64.27%64.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cerezo Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 18.95%5.28fair odd
EV -0.506%
Edge -0.096%
Kelly -0.119%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.85%19.00%18.99%20.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.834.805.2523.26%20.72%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.86%4.57fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.87%21.87%21.80%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.184.204.4025.64%23.93%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 59.19%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 18.95%; Draw: 21.86%. For Cerezo Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -0.506%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -5.30%E -3.31%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 5.16I 19.38%NM 18.53%EV -2.21%E -0.429%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%EV -3.81%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-09 10:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.02%EV -5.89%E -3.70%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.15%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-09 10:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -0.506%E -0.096%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -3.81%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.41%EV -2.40%E -0.466%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.59%EV -4.03%E -0.919%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 10:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.18%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 10:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.18%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 10:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.97%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.98%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -4.91%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 10:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-09 11:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.37%EV -6.48%E -4.10%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -9.98%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -9.28%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-07 08:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 10:07 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-08 10:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -10.37%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 07:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 10:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.07%E -4.51%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 11:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.48%EV -4.30%E -0.851%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.00%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 10:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.33%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -7.09%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.33%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -7.09%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV -7.67%E -4.91%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 10:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -3.81%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 10:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.71%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -10.93%E -2.33%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.93%EV -9.28%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-07 08:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.72%E -3.27%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-08 10:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-08 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-08 10:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-08 10:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -8.26%E -5.33%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-08 10:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -0.506%E -0.096%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -3.81%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.75%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -1.45%E -0.280%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -3.81%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 10:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -9.98%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -9.98%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-07 10:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -9.98%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-07 10:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.25%EV -8.85%E -5.75%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -16.61%E -3.78%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-07 08:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.40%EV -10.03%E -6.60%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -7.14%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -3.81%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-07 08:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -10.03%E -6.60%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -14.72%E -3.27%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.91%EV -11.47%E -2.83%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-08 10:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.00%EV -10.03%E -6.60%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.50%EV -18.51%E -4.30%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.50%EV -10.37%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-07 08:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 57.92%EV -10.63%E -7.04%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.65%EV -15.67%E -3.52%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.43%EV -14.75%E -3.78%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-07 08:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.22%E -7.48%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -8.19%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -11.22%E -7.48%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -9.98%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -12.56%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-09 10:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.24% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32% | 3.1% | 2026-09-09 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.32% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.44% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 17:21 |