Language:English
Fagiano Okayama v V-Varen Nagasaki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fagiano Okayama (Local)
Prediction 58.29%1.72fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.68%58.09%58.30%60.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.6865.36%62.38%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)
Prediction 17.08%5.85fair odd
EV +0.789%
Edge +0.134%
Kelly +0.161%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 5.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.70%17.19%17.17%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.215.255.9021.05%19.18%19.05%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.62%4.06fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.503%
Kelly -0.672%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.68%24.72%24.53%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.683.653.9828.57%27.19%27.40%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fagiano Okayama (Local): 58.29%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 17.08%; Draw: 24.62%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.789%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -10.81%E -7.07%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV +0.789%E +0.134%K +0.161%G +0.001% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -3.97%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 09:43 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 15.94%EV -0.065%E -0.011%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -5.45%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 09:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.17%EV -4.98%E -3.06%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.83I 17.15%NM 16.54%EV -0.407%E -0.070%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.29%EV -2.25%E -0.566%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -0.919%E -0.159%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.59%EV -4.98%E -3.06%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV -1.77%E -0.308%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -1.77%E -0.308%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 09:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -4.34%E -0.774%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.66%EV -3.81%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.66%EV -3.81%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 09:43 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -10.13%E -2.77%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.78%EV -7.31%E -4.60%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.90%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-15 09:43 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.11%EV -10.81%E -7.07%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.90%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.11%EV -10.81%E -7.07%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.90%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.23%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -7.75%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 09:48 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.56%E -3.43%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.71%EV -8.61%E -1.61%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.81%EV -2.00%E -0.503%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.97%EV -7.89%E -5.00%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.28%EV -9.46%E -1.79%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.90%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.77%EV -7.89%E -5.00%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.22%EV -9.46%E -1.79%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -10.13%E -2.77%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.59%EV -10.23%E -6.64%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.02%EV -9.46%E -1.79%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -8.90%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.37%EV -6.73%E -4.21%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.13%E -2.77%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.48%EV -7.89%E -5.00%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.34%EV -9.64%E -6.22%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.22%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.90%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 09:48 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.94%EV -9.64%E -6.22%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-15 09:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.94%EV -9.64%E -6.22%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.94%EV -9.64%E -6.22%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-15 09:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.94%EV -9.64%E -6.22%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-15 09:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.26%EV -10.81%E -7.07%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -10.32%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -11.36%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.44%EV -9.06%E -5.81%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -12.88%E -2.52%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 09:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.48%E -5.40%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-15 09:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.06%EV -2.07%E -1.23%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -16.29%E -3.33%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.06%EV -2.07%E -1.23%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -16.29%E -3.33%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.06%EV -2.07%E -1.23%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -16.29%E -3.33%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.06%EV -2.07%E -1.23%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -16.29%E -3.33%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.97%EV -10.23%E -6.64%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.22%EV -16.29%E -3.33%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -3.23%E -1.95%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.59%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -3.81%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -13.82%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -3.81%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -13.82%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -3.81%E -2.31%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -13.82%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.68%EV -2.65%E -1.59%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -18.86%E -3.97%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.82%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66% | 1.4% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.52% | 2.0% | 2026-08-15 09:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.24% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.36% | 2.6% | 2026-08-15 09:44 |