Language:English
Spezia v Monza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Spezia (Local)
Prediction 25.80%3.88fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.383%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%25.70%25.79%26.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.503.9230.30%28.19%28.57%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Monza (Visit)
Prediction 46.28%2.16fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.05%46.33%46.25%48.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.982.002.1055.56%50.39%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.445%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.77%27.97%27.96%29.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.243.253.5434.48%30.82%30.77%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spezia (Local): 25.80%; Monza (Visit): 46.28%; Draw: 27.93%. For Spezia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.68%EV +1.12%E +0.285%K +0.383%G +0.004% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.19%EV -5.14%E -2.51%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV +0.602%E +0.154%K +0.207%G +0.001% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 13:58 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.84%EV -1.20%E -0.314%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -8.84%E -4.49%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.87%EV -1.13%E -0.319%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -1.98%E -0.521%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.42%EV -7.91%E -3.98%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -1.98%E -0.521%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.42%EV -7.91%E -3.98%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -1.98%E -0.521%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -3.27%E -0.871%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -3.53%E -0.943%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.38%EV -6.99%E -3.48%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.81%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.69%EV -3.28%E -1.57%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -8.84%E -4.49%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.38%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -2.82%E -1.34%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -11.61%E -6.08%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -16.21%E -5.40%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -8.43%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -2.25%E -0.642%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -8.43%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -3.64%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -8.43%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -8.43%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -8.43%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.74%EV -8.38%E -4.23%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -12.02%E -3.82%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.89%EV -15.32%E -8.37%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%EV -16.21%E -5.40%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -11.01%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -11.01%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.31%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.16%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -11.01%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -11.01%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -9.30%E -4.75%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -7.83%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -8.84%E -4.49%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.53%EV -10.23%E -5.27%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.85%EV -13.47%E -7.20%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.62%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 46.51%EV -16.70%E -9.28%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.87%EV -19.00%E -6.55%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 19.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.70%EV -13.59%E -4.06%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.53%EV -14.39%E -7.78%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-03-07 13:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -14.88%E -4.51%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.54%EV -14.88%E -4.51%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.09%EV -12.08%E -6.36%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.34% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.41% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.34% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.41% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.34% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.41% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15% | 1.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05% | 3.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |