Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.25
assuming max odds 3.39
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 42.49%; Ascoli (Visit): 28.91%; Draw: 28.61%. For Ascoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.39, with an expected value of -2.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.48%EV -4.41%E -1.96%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -2.73%E -0.803%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-08 00:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.41%E -1.96%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 13:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.71%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -4.16%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.09%EV -2.01%E -0.593%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.21%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-08 21:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.68%E -2.56%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 10:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.68%E -2.56%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 10:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 02:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 13:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 08:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 08:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 08:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-08 02:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 09:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 09:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-07 18:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-07 18:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 17:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.97%EV -7.38%E -3.39%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.47%EV -4.90%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.56%EV -6.16%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -8.23%E -3.81%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -5.19%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -6.16%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.82%E -3.15%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-08 13:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.82%E -3.15%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-08 13:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 18:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-08 13:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-08 02:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-08 02:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-08 02:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-07 23:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-07 18:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-09 13:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.89%EV -11.63%E -5.59%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-08 00:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -12.48%E -6.06%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -12.90%E -6.29%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-09 12:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -12.90%E -6.29%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-08 00:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.36%EV -13.33%E -6.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -14.18%E -7.02%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -14.18%E -7.02%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-07 23:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 43.58%EV -15.45%E -7.77%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.98%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-09-08 13:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 43.67%EV -17.15%E -8.80%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.47%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.86%EV -15.60%E -5.29%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-09-08 00:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47% | 4.4% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47% | 4.4% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47% | 4.4% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47% | 4.4% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.61% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56% | 5.7% | 2026-09-09 15:40 |