Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Padova v Ascoli

Início: 2026-09-12 13:03 UTC

Final: Padova 1–0 Ascoli

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Padova (Local)

Previsão 42.49%2.35odd justa
EV -4.41%
Vantagem -1.96%
Kelly -3.53%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.49%42.44%42.50%43.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.152.152.2551.28%46.58%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ascoli (Visitante)

Previsão 28.91%3.46odd justa
EV -2.01%
Vantagem -0.593%
Kelly -0.842%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.39

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.47%28.88%28.89%29.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.193.203.3933.90%31.32%31.25%29.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.61%3.50odd justa
EV -2.73%
Vantagem -0.803%
Kelly -1.14%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.68%28.68%28.61%29.60%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.183.203.4033.90%31.40%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Padova (Local): 42.49%; Ascoli (Visitante): 28.91%; Empate: 28.61%. Para Ascoli (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.46. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.39, com valor esperado de -2.01%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.48%EV -4.41%E -1.96%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -2.73%E -0.803%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 00:49
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.41%E -1.96%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 13:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.71%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -4.16%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 00:35
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.09%EV -2.01%E -0.593%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.21%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.68%E -2.56%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.68%E -2.56%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:45
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 02:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 13:00
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 08:15
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 08:20
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 08:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-08 02:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 09:09
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 09:10
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 09:09
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 17:04
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.97%EV -7.38%E -3.39%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.47%EV -4.90%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.56%EV -6.16%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -8.23%E -3.81%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -5.19%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -6.16%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 15:15
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 00:35
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 00:35
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 09:09
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.82%E -3.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 13:13
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.82%E -3.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 13:14
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 09:09
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-08 13:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 02:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 02:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-08 00:35
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-07 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 13:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.89%EV -11.63%E -5.59%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 00:34
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -12.48%E -6.06%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 00:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -12.90%E -6.29%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-09 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -12.90%E -6.29%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-08 00:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.36%EV -13.33%E -6.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -14.18%E -7.02%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-08 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -14.18%E -7.02%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-07 23:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.58%EV -15.45%E -7.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.98%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-08 13:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.67%EV -17.15%E -8.80%K -18.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.47%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.86%EV -15.60%E -5.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%17.4%2026-09-08 00:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.61%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%5.7%2026-09-09 15:40