Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Padova v Ascoli

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-12 13:03 UTC

Score final : Padova 1–0 Ascoli

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Padova (Local)

Prévision 42.49%2.35cote équitable
EV -4.41%
Avantage -1.96%
Kelly -3.53%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.49%42.44%42.50%43.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.952.152.152.2551.28%46.58%46.51%44.44%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Ascoli (Visiteur)

Prévision 28.91%3.46cote équitable
EV -2.01%
Avantage -0.593%
Kelly -0.842%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.39

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.47%28.88%28.89%29.86%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.953.193.203.3933.90%31.32%31.25%29.50%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 28.61%3.50cote équitable
EV -2.73%
Avantage -0.803%
Kelly -1.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.68%28.68%28.61%29.60%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.953.183.203.4033.90%31.40%31.25%29.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Padova (Local) : 42.49% ; Ascoli (Visiteur) : 28.91% ; Match nul : 28.61%. Pour Ascoli (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.46. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 3.39, pour une espérance de -2.01% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.48%EV -4.41%E -1.96%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -2.73%E -0.803%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 00:49
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.41%E -1.96%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 13:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.71%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -4.16%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 00:35
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -5.26%E -2.36%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.09%EV -2.01%E -0.593%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.21%EV -6.73%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.68%E -2.56%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.68%E -2.56%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 10:45
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 02:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 13:00
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 08:15
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 08:20
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 08:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-08 02:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 09:09
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 09:10
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 09:09
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.53%E -2.97%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 17:04
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.97%EV -7.38%E -3.39%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.47%EV -4.90%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.56%EV -6.16%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -8.23%E -3.81%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -5.19%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -6.16%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 15:15
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 00:35
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 00:35
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 09:09
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.82%E -3.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 13:13
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.82%E -3.15%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 13:14
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 09:09
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-08 13:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 02:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 02:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.66%E -4.03%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -9.93%E -4.68%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -3.17%E -0.946%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.45%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-08 00:35
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-07 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.78%E -5.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 13:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.89%EV -11.63%E -5.59%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 00:34
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -12.48%E -6.06%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 00:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -12.90%E -6.29%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-09 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -12.90%E -6.29%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -9.88%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-08 00:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.36%EV -13.33%E -6.53%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -14.18%E -7.02%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-08 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -14.18%E -7.02%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -12.74%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-07 23:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.58%EV -15.45%E -7.77%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.98%EV -11.31%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-08 13:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.67%EV -17.15%E -8.80%K -18.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.47%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.86%EV -15.60%E -5.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%17.4%2026-09-08 00:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.76%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.61%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%5.7%2026-09-09 15:40