The School of Odds
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MSV Duisburg v FC Würzburger Kickers

2026-08-29 12:00 UTC — 3. Liga - Germany

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MSV Duisburg (Local)

Prediction 63.71%1.57fair odd
EV -7.62%
Edge -5.26%
Kelly -16.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.71%63.71%63.71%63.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.451.451.4568.97%68.97%68.97%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit)

Prediction 16.21%6.17fair odd
EV -7.62%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.21%16.21%16.21%16.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.705.705.705.7017.54%17.54%17.54%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.08%4.98fair odd
EV -7.62%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.08%20.08%20.08%20.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.604.604.6021.74%21.74%21.74%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: MSV Duisburg (Local): 63.71%; FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit): 16.21%; Draw: 20.08%. For MSV Duisburg (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.45, with an expected value of -7.62%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.71%EV -7.62%E -5.26%K -16.93%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.21%EV -7.62%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.