A Escola das Odds

FC Ingolstadt 04 v Erzgebirge Aue

Início: 2026-05-03 17:30 UTC

Final: FC Ingolstadt 04 3–5 Erzgebirge Aue

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (11 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)

Previsão 56.73%1.76odd justa
EV -4.13%
Vantagem -2.44%
Kelly -5.99%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.69

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
53.68%56.52%56.82%57.94%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.531.621.631.6965.36%61.58%61.35%59.17%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Erzgebirge Aue (Visitante)

Previsão 21.28%4.70odd justa
EV -2.13%
Vantagem -0.464%
Kelly -0.592%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.34%21.28%21.27%23.13%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.604.204.254.6027.78%23.84%23.53%21.74%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 22.00%4.55odd justa
EV -3.21%
Vantagem -0.730%
Kelly -0.945%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.99%22.20%21.92%24.22%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.404.003.984.4029.41%25.00%25.16%22.73%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.13%E -2.44%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.93%EV -3.41%E -0.751%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.84%EV -8.49%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 17:20
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 53.87%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -15.31%E -3.98%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 17:15
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 55.37%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 17:25
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 17:25
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 17:25
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 17:21
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -5.41%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 17:20
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 16:54
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 16:55
LowVig.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -2.13%E -0.464%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 17:24
BetOnline.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -2.13%E -0.464%K -0.592%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 17:26
Suprabets1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.12%EV -13.55%E -3.45%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 17:19
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -6.39%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -5.41%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 17:19
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -7.45%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -6.51%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 17:21
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -7.45%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -6.51%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 17:21
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.02%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -3.21%E -0.730%K -0.945%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 17:20
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.88%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -7.45%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 17:21
Codere (IT)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 17:21
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 17:24
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-03 17:26
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.38%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 17:21
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 17:15
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 17:20
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 17:15
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 54.12%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -19.15%E -5.04%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.09%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-03 17:25
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -10.94%E -6.97%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 17:15
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 55.07%EV -10.94%E -6.97%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.17%EV -17.03%E -4.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.75%EV -16.41%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-03 17:25
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%EV -10.94%E -6.97%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -20.22%E -5.39%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.55%EV -16.41%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-03 17:15
theScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 57.94%EV -11.51%E -7.38%K -20.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -6.39%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 17:15
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 53.73%EV -12.07%E -7.79%K -21.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.13%EV -23.41%E -6.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.13%EV -20.81%E -5.78%K -8.00%G +0.000%20.1%2026-05-03 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 53.82%EV -13.21%E -8.63%K -24.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 21.96%EV -20.22%E -5.39%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.22%EV -25.21%E -7.41%K -10.50%G +0.000%21.4%2026-05-03 17:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.38%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.30%1.9%2026-05-03 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.22%2.3%2026-05-03 17:21
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 56.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.22%2.3%2026-05-03 17:21