Idioma:Español
FC Ingolstadt 04 v Erzgebirge Aue
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)
Predicción 56.73%1.76momio equitativo
EV -4.13%
Ventaja -2.44%
Kelly -5.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.68%56.52%56.82%57.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.621.631.6965.36%61.58%61.35%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Erzgebirge Aue (Visitante)
Predicción 21.28%4.70momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.464%
Kelly -0.592%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.34%21.28%21.27%23.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.604.204.254.6027.78%23.84%23.53%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 22.00%4.55momio equitativo
EV -3.21%
Ventaja -0.730%
Kelly -0.945%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.99%22.20%21.92%24.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.404.003.984.4029.41%25.00%25.16%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 56.73%; Erzgebirge Aue (Visitante): 21.28%; Empate: 22.00%. Para Erzgebirge Aue (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.70. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.60, con un valor esperado de -2.13%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.13%E -2.44%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 20.93%EV -3.41%E -0.751%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.84%EV -8.49%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 17:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.87%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -15.31%E -3.98%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.37%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -5.41%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 17:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-03 16:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.58%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -13.11%E -3.32%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -2.13%E -0.464%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 17:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -2.13%E -0.464%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 17:26 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -7.53%E -4.62%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 23.12%EV -13.55%E -3.45%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 17:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -6.39%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -5.41%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 17:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -7.45%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -6.51%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -7.45%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -6.51%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.02%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -3.21%E -0.730%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.88%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -7.45%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -8.52%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 17:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -8.10%E -5.00%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -14.90%E -3.72%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-03 17:26 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.38%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.12%EV -9.24%E -5.77%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -19.15%E -5.04%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.09%EV -17.51%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -10.94%E -6.97%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.07%EV -10.94%E -6.97%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.17%EV -17.03%E -4.37%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.75%EV -16.41%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%EV -10.94%E -6.97%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -20.22%E -5.39%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.55%EV -16.41%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.94%EV -11.51%E -7.38%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -6.39%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 17:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 53.73%EV -12.07%E -7.79%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.13%EV -23.41%E -6.50%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.13%EV -20.81%E -5.78%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-05-03 17:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 53.82%EV -13.21%E -8.63%K -24.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 21.96%EV -20.22%E -5.39%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.22%EV -25.21%E -7.41%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 21.4% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.38% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.30% | 1.9% | 2026-05-03 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.52% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.22% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.52% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.22% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 17:21 |