Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld v FC St. Pauli

2026-09-04 16:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Prediction 42.38%2.36fair odd
EV -0.413%
Edge -0.176%
Kelly -0.306%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.17%42.54%42.20%45.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.122.3550.00%46.82%47.17%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.653%
Kelly +0.943%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.02%31.26%31.50%34.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.973.003.2537.04%33.63%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.20%3.82fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.636%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.21%26.19%26.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.543.7530.30%28.65%28.25%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 42.38%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 31.42%; Draw: 26.20%. For FC St. Pauli (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 9 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.25, producing a positive expected value of +2.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.13%EV -11.43%E -5.47%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV +2.12%E +0.653%K +0.943%G +0.020%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -4.37%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 11:00
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV +0.552%E +0.172%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 10:59
Suprabets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.93%EV -13.55%E -6.64%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -1.02%E -0.324%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.97%EV -7.51%E -2.13%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 12:47
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.99%EV -9.74%E -4.57%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.84%EV -1.33%E -0.425%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.17%EV -6.20%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.22%EV -10.58%E -5.02%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -1.33%E -0.425%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.20%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 12:45
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.46%EV -13.55%E -6.64%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -2.59%E -0.836%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-31 11:00
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.32%EV -14.40%E -7.13%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.32%EV -14.40%E -7.13%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 11:00
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.65%E -2.07%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 13:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.65%E -2.07%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 12:45
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 13:05
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 13:05
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 13:04
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 13:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 13:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 13:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -15.25%E -7.62%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -12.23%E -3.65%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -15.25%E -7.62%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -12.23%E -3.65%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -15.25%E -7.62%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -12.23%E -3.65%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 11:00
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.65%E -2.07%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.30%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -1.75%E -0.467%K -0.636%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 12:55
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.65%E -2.07%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.30%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-31 13:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -5.50%E -2.47%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.30%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 12:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -15.25%E -7.62%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -7.30%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-31 12:53
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.06%E -0.827%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 12:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.06%E -0.827%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 12:54
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 12:45
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-31 12:45
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.89%E -4.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -3.06%E -0.827%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 12:55
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.70%EV -7.62%E -3.49%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 13:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 12:55
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.77%E -3.08%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 12:55
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.89%E -4.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.40%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-31 12:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.89%E -4.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.89%E -4.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 13:00
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.89%E -4.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 13:00
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.89%E -4.13%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 12:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-31 12:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.13%E -6.40%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-31 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -0.413%E -0.176%K -0.306%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.06%E -0.827%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 12:45
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -15.16%E -5.61%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-31 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 43.43%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%6.1%2026-08-31 12:50
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 41.47%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.41%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.12%17.1%2026-08-31 12:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%170.3%2026-08-31 11:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.63%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.74%170.3%2026-08-31 11:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 34.14%1.07I 93.46%NM 33.83%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.03%176.3%2026-08-31 11:05
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.01%Tipico (DE) 2.35 (42.6%) / Pinnacle 3.25 (30.8%) / Coolbet 3.75 (26.7%)Show details
Arminia Bielefeld (Local)FC St. Pauli (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE)🎯 2.35 (42.6%)Pinnacle🎯 3.25 (30.8%)Coolbet🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.011%