Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.46
assuming max odds 2.90
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 39.50%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 34.31%; Draw: 26.19%. For FC St. Pauli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.492%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.40%EV -2.83%E -1.15%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.99%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -3.22%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.43%EV -3.58%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -2.85%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -3.22%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 12:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 14:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -5.59%E -2.34%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.47%EV -5.30%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -5.59%E -2.34%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.47%EV -5.30%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-04 13:48 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.64%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.09%EV -6.38%E -2.69%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.70%E -2.86%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 10:06 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 10:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 10:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -6.67%E -2.45%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -6.67%E -2.45%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 10:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 14:33 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -2.21%E -0.775%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.80%E -0.480%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 04:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 07:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 07:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 10:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 09:38 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 09:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 09:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 09:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 09:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -12.50%E -4.90%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 08:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 08:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 08:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 08:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 04:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-04 08:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 08:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-04 09:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 08:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.38%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.38%EV -13.53%E -5.37%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-09-04 11:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-04 08:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -15.07%E -7.01%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.17% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.92% | 0.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.01% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94% | 1.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.32% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.67% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |