Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Arminia Bielefeld v FC St. Pauli

Início: 2026-09-04 16:30 UTC

Final: Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC St. Pauli

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Previsão 39.50%2.53odd justa
EV -2.83%
Vantagem -1.15%
Kelly -1.94%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.46

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.04%39.52%39.53%41.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.312.302.4646.51%43.30%43.48%40.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC St. Pauli (Visitante)

Previsão 34.31%2.91odd justa
EV -0.492%
Vantagem -0.170%
Kelly -0.259%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.17%34.26%34.38%35.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.522.732.722.9039.68%36.63%36.76%34.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.19%3.82odd justa
EV -1.80%
Vantagem -0.480%
Kelly -0.655%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.34%26.22%26.09%27.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.503.503.7530.30%28.58%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 39.50%; FC St. Pauli (Visitante): 34.31%; Empate: 26.19%. Para FC St. Pauli (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.91. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.90, com valor esperado de -0.492%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.40%EV -2.83%E -1.15%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.99%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -3.22%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.43%EV -3.58%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -2.85%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -3.22%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 11:25
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:34
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:35
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -5.59%E -2.34%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.47%EV -5.30%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -5.59%E -2.34%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.47%EV -5.30%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:30
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 13:49
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 13:48
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.64%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Suprabets🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.09%EV -6.38%E -2.69%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.70%E -2.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 10:06
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 10:04
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:09
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -6.67%E -2.45%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -6.67%E -2.45%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 13:20
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 10:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 14:33
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -2.21%E -0.775%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.80%E -0.480%K -0.655%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 04:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 10:05
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 09:38
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:34
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:34
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -12.50%E -4.90%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:59
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 04:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:49
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:49
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:50
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 09:35
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 08:59
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 09:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.38%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.38%EV -13.53%E -5.37%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-04 11:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 08:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -15.07%E -7.01%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.92%0.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.01%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-09-04 14:20
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.32%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%3.9%2026-09-04 14:00