Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Arminia Bielefeld v FC St. Pauli

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-04 16:30 UTC

Score final : Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC St. Pauli

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Prévision 39.50%2.53cote équitable
EV -2.83%
Avantage -1.15%
Kelly -1.94%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.46

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.04%39.52%39.53%41.32%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.152.312.302.4646.51%43.30%43.48%40.65%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

FC St. Pauli (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.31%2.91cote équitable
EV -0.492%
Avantage -0.170%
Kelly -0.259%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.17%34.26%34.38%35.35%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.522.732.722.9039.68%36.63%36.76%34.48%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 26.19%3.82cote équitable
EV -1.80%
Avantage -0.480%
Kelly -0.655%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.34%26.22%26.09%27.03%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.503.503.7530.30%28.58%28.57%26.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Arminia Bielefeld (Local) : 39.50% ; FC St. Pauli (Visiteur) : 34.31% ; Match nul : 26.19%. Pour FC St. Pauli (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 2.91. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 2.90, pour une espérance de -0.492% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.40%EV -2.83%E -1.15%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.99%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -3.22%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.43%EV -3.58%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -2.85%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -3.22%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 11:25
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:34
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:35
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -5.59%E -2.34%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.47%EV -5.30%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.81%EV -5.59%E -2.34%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.47%EV -5.30%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:30
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 13:49
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 13:48
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.64%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -9.07%E -3.42%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Suprabets🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.09%EV -6.38%E -2.69%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.70%E -2.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 10:06
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 10:04
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:09
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -6.67%E -2.45%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.28%EV -6.67%E -2.45%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 13:20
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 10:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 14:33
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.17%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -2.21%E -0.775%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.80%E -0.480%K -0.655%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 04:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 10:05
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 09:38
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:34
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:34
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -12.50%E -4.90%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 08:59
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -0.492%E -0.170%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:00
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 04:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:49
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:49
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -10.10%E -3.85%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:50
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -11.12%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -9.76%E -3.71%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 09:35
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 08:59
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 09:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.38%EV -13.10%E -5.95%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.38%EV -13.53%E -5.37%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-04 11:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -14.68%E -6.80%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -5.64%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 08:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -15.07%E -7.01%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -10.79%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.92%0.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.01%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.07%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.4%2026-09-04 14:20
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.32%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%3.9%2026-09-04 14:00