Language:English
Arminia Bielefeld v 1. FC Nürnberg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arminia Bielefeld (Local)
Prediction 47.43%2.11fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.80%47.52%47.38%49.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.951.952.0253.19%51.23%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)
Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -0.812%
Edge -0.220%
Kelly -0.301%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.74%26.85%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.403.7032.26%29.31%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.76%3.88fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.909%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%25.74%25.77%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.603.7532.26%28.09%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 47.43%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 26.81%; Draw: 25.76%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.812%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%EV -4.18%E -2.07%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.26%EV -1.35%E -0.366%K -0.503%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.91%EV -3.92%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.41%E -0.909%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 07:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.49%E -0.970%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.18%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.98%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 09:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 09:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 10:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -5.13%E -2.57%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.70%EV -5.61%E -2.82%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.79%EV -1.35%E -0.366%K -0.503%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.51%EV -7.79%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.41%E -0.909%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-17 09:19 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -4.83%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-18 10:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-18 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -6.08%E -3.07%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-18 10:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.55%E -3.33%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 10:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.55%E -3.33%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.96%EV -7.03%E -3.59%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.49%E -0.970%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 09:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -5.98%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-17 07:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-17 07:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 10:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.17%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 10:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-17 07:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.42%E -3.65%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 09:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -7.50%E -3.85%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.42%E -3.65%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 09:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.38%EV -7.98%E -4.11%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -5.98%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-18 10:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.85%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.21%EV -4.57%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.95%EV -3.67%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.42%E -3.65%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-18 10:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-17 09:18 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-17 09:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-17 09:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-17 09:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.70%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.70%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.00%E -4.55%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -16.90%E -5.45%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -20.15%E -6.50%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-04-18 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.87%E -5.20%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -0.812%E -0.220%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 10:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -10.35%E -5.48%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -0.812%E -0.220%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.20%EV -10.35%E -5.48%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.79%EV -10.73%E -3.22%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 26.01%EV -11.65%E -3.40%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-18 10:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.48%EV -10.82%E -5.76%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-18 10:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.89%EV -10.82%E -5.76%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.55%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-18 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.72%EV -10.82%E -5.76%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -12.42%E -3.65%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-18 10:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.90% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.88% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22% | 0.4% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.14% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 0.8% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.14% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 0.8% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.14% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 0.8% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14% | 2.0% | 2026-04-18 10:50 |