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Bayern Munich v Union Berlin

2026-09-18 18:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 86.62%1.15fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -16.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.17%86.52%86.78%88.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.091.101.1396.15%91.80%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 4.84%20.66fair odd
EV +25.87%
Edge +0.995%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.268%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.69%4.94%4.81%6.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0018.9319.0026.007.69%5.28%5.26%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.53%11.72fair odd
EV +19.49%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.292%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.76%8.54%8.41%10.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.6910.2514.0011.76%9.35%9.76%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayern Munich (Local): 86.62%; Union Berlin (Visit): 4.84%; Draw: 8.53%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.66. 11 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 26.00, producing a positive expected value of +25.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.50%EV -7.31%E -6.83%K -104.46%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -3.18%E -0.159%K -0.167%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.76%EV +19.49%E +1.39%K +1.50%G +0.292%5.6%2026-09-06 17:55
1xBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 87.95%EV -2.98%E -2.66%K -24.84%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.48%EV +6.51%E +0.296%K +0.310%G +0.020%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.58%EV +10.95%E +0.843%K +0.913%G +0.100%1.5%2026-09-06 19:19
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.92%EV -6.45%E -5.97%K -80.58%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.69%EV +25.87%E +0.995%K +1.03%G +0.268%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.39%EV +10.95%E +0.843%K +0.913%G +0.100%4.1%2026-09-06 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.45%EV -3.85%E -3.47%K -34.98%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.62%EV +1.67%E +0.079%K +0.083%G +0.001%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.92%EV +4.55%E +0.372%K +0.405%G +0.018%3.0%2026-09-06 19:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -6.45%E -5.97%K -80.58%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +11.35%E +0.493%K +0.516%G +0.059%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +2.42%E +0.202%K +0.220%G +0.005%5.3%2026-09-06 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.71%EV -7.31%E -6.83%K -104.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +1.67%E +0.079%K +0.083%G +0.001%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +2.42%E +0.202%K +0.220%G +0.005%6.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.95%EV -5.58%E -5.12%K -62.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -27.38%E -1.83%K -1.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +2.42%E +0.202%K +0.220%G +0.005%6.7%2026-09-06 19:20
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -8.18%E -7.72%K -136.31%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +11.35%E +0.493%K +0.516%G +0.059%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +2.42%E +0.202%K +0.220%G +0.005%7.0%2026-09-06 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.13%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%16.10I 6.21%NM 5.88%EV -22.06%E -1.37%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.87I 8.42%NM 7.98%EV +1.31%E +0.110%K +0.120%G +0.002%5.5%2026-09-06 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.45%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.28%EV -12.86%E -0.714%K -0.756%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV -1.85%E -0.161%K -0.176%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -6.12%E -0.556%K -0.612%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:10
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -6.12%E -0.556%K -0.612%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -6.12%E -0.556%K -0.612%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 18:54
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.63%EV -9.04%E -8.61%K -180.90%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV +11.35%E +0.493%K +0.516%G +0.059%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -6.12%E -0.556%K -0.612%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.03%EV -2.11%E -1.87%K -16.27%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.82%EV -20.12%E -1.22%K -1.30%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.15%EV -10.38%E -0.989%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.01%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.98%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -10.38%E -0.989%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 19:10
Coral🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -2.98%E -2.66%K -24.84%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -17.70%E -1.04%K -1.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 19:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -2.98%E -2.66%K -24.84%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV -27.38%E -1.83%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 19:10
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.71%E -4.29%K -47.14%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.31%E -6.83%K -104.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.67%E +0.079%K +0.083%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.31%E -6.83%K -104.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.67%E +0.079%K +0.083%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 17:55
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -7.31%E -6.83%K -104.46%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -14.65%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.87%EV -8.18%E -7.72%K -136.31%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -8.02%E -0.422%K -0.445%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.34%EV -16.79%E -1.72%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -2.98%E -2.66%K -24.84%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.22%E -2.30%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -18.92%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 19:05
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -2.98%E -2.66%K -24.84%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.22%E -2.30%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -18.92%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 19:05
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.48%EV -3.85%E -3.47%K -34.98%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.31%EV +6.51%E +0.296%K +0.310%G +0.020%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.20%EV -20.63%E -2.22%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.48%EV -3.85%E -3.47%K -34.98%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.31%EV +6.51%E +0.296%K +0.310%G +0.020%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.20%EV -20.63%E -2.22%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 84.04%EV -9.91%E -9.53%K -247.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.24%EV -32.22%E -2.30%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.71%EV -23.19%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-06 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.57%EV -9.04%E -8.61%K -180.90%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV -17.70%E -1.04%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.21%EV -25.75%E -2.96%K -3.34%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 83.17%EV -9.91%E -9.53%K -247.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.65%EV -37.06%E -2.85%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.18%EV -27.45%E -3.23%K -3.66%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 83.77%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.73%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.51%4.7%2026-09-06 19:15
Smarkets◎1.04I 96.15%NM 82.32%14.01I 7.14%NM 6.11%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.57%16.8%2026-09-06 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 32.59%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.89%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.52%186.8%2026-09-06 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 32.59%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.89%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.52%186.8%2026-09-06 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 32.59%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.89%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.52%186.8%2026-09-06 17:55
Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.52%BetMGM 1.13 (89.0%) / SportsBet 26.00 (3.9%) / Tipico (DE) 14.00 (7.2%)Show all 4 combinations
Bayern Munich (Local)Union Berlin (Visit)DrawMargin
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (89.0%)SportsBet🎯 26.00 (3.9%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.2%)+0.518%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)Codere (IT)🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)Paddy Power🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)FanDuel🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%