StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Bayern Munich v Union Berlin

2026-09-18 18:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Matchresultat

32 spelbolag (13 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Bayern Munich (Hemma)

Prognos 86.57%1.16rättvist odds
EV -2.17%
Fördel -1.92%
Kelly -16.71%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.13

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
83.17%86.34%86.66%88.92%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.041.091.101.1396.15%91.72%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Borta)

Prognos 4.82%20.75rättvist odds
EV +25.32%
Fördel +0.974%
Kelly +1.01%
Tillväxt +0.256%

med antagandet om högsta odds 26.00

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
3.69%4.99%4.87%7.14%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
13.0018.9219.0026.007.69%5.29%5.26%3.85%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 8.61%11.62rättvist odds
EV +20.49%
Fördel +1.46%
Kelly +1.58%
Tillväxt +0.323%

med antagandet om högsta odds 14.00

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
6.76%8.67%8.47%11.26%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
8.4010.6010.2514.0011.90%9.43%9.76%7.14%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

För Matchresultat uppskattar Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) följande sannolikheter: Bayern Munich (Hemma): 86.57%; Union Berlin (Borta): 4.82%; Oavgjort: 8.61%. För Union Berlin (Borta) motsvarar uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 20.75. 11 spelbolag erbjuder odds över den nivån; bästa tillgängliga odds är 26.00, vilket ger ett positivt väntevärde på +25.32%.

Spelbolagsodds (32 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjort ▼MarginalUppdaterat
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.50%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -3.60%E -0.180%K -0.190%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.76%EV +20.49%E +1.46%K +1.58%G +0.323%5.6%2026-09-06 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.92%EV -6.50%E -6.02%K -81.26%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.69%EV +25.32%E +0.974%K +1.01%G +0.256%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.39%EV +11.89%E +0.914%K +0.991%G +0.118%4.1%2026-09-06 17:54
1xBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 88.07%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.29%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.65%EV +11.03%E +0.855%K +0.927%G +0.102%1.4%2026-09-06 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.64%EV -3.90%E -3.52%K -35.49%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.42%EV +6.04%E +0.274%K +0.288%G +0.017%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.94%EV +5.43%E +0.443%K +0.483%G +0.026%2.8%2026-09-06 19:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -6.50%E -6.02%K -81.26%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +3.28%E +0.273%K +0.298%G +0.010%5.3%2026-09-06 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.71%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +1.22%E +0.058%K +0.061%G +0.001%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +3.28%E +0.273%K +0.298%G +0.010%6.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -8.23%E -7.77%K -137.20%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +3.28%E +0.273%K +0.298%G +0.010%7.0%2026-09-06 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.13%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%16.10I 6.21%NM 5.88%EV -22.40%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%11.87I 8.42%NM 7.98%EV +2.16%E +0.182%K +0.199%G +0.004%5.5%2026-09-06 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.45%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.28%EV -13.24%E -0.736%K -0.779%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV -1.02%E -0.089%K -0.097%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:10
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 18:54
Betway🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.42%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -37.34%E -2.87%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 19:45
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.63%EV -9.10%E -8.66%K -181.96%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.03%EV -2.17%E -1.92%K -16.71%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.82%EV -20.47%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.15%EV -9.63%E -0.917%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.01%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.98%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -9.63%E -0.917%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 19:10
Coral🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -18.06%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 19:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV -27.70%E -1.85%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 19:10
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.22%E +0.058%K +0.061%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.22%E +0.058%K +0.061%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 17:55
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.82%EV -8.23%E -7.77%K -137.20%G +0.000%18.75I 5.33%NM 4.85%EV -9.63%E -0.513%K -0.542%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.33%EV -16.08%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 20:28
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.52%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -18.24%E -1.92%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 19:05
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.52%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -18.24%E -1.92%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 84.04%EV -9.96%E -9.58%K -249.09%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.24%EV -32.52%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.71%EV -22.54%E -2.50%K -2.82%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-06 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.57%EV -9.10%E -8.66%K -181.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV -18.06%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.21%EV -25.12%E -2.89%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 83.17%EV -9.96%E -9.58%K -249.09%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.65%EV -37.34%E -2.87%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.18%EV -26.84%E -3.16%K -3.58%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.44%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.30%EV +6.04%E +0.274%K +0.288%G +0.017%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.26%EV -27.70%E -3.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 20:25
NordicBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.44%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.30%EV +6.04%E +0.274%K +0.288%G +0.017%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.26%EV -27.70%E -3.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 20:25
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (5)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Kalshi1.14I 87.72%NM 86.24%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.90%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%1.7%2026-09-06 20:20
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 82.32%14.01I 7.14%NM 6.11%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.57%16.8%2026-09-06 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 32.38%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.99%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.63%185.9%2026-09-06 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 32.38%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.99%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.63%185.9%2026-09-06 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 32.38%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.99%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.63%185.9%2026-09-06 19:55
Arbitrage (5 kombinationer) +0.52%BetMGM 1.13 (89.0%) / SportsBet 26.00 (3.9%) / Tipico (DE) 14.00 (7.2%)Visa alla 5 kombinationer
Bayern Munich (Hemma)Union Berlin (Borta)OavgjortMarginal
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (89.0%)SportsBet🎯 26.00 (3.9%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.2%)+0.518%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)1xBet🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)Codere (IT)🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)Paddy Power🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)FanDuel🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%